Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. Yesterday, the S&P 500 opened lower, but then switched to growth during the session and closed at +0.4%. The main "red spots" on the index map were seen in giants like Amazon, Tesla, and Google. At the same time, semiconductor manufacturers showed decent growth, except for AMD, which fell after its earnings report. In the post-market, Qualcomm's shares rose on the back of an optimistic sales forecast. According to ADP, American companies added 183,000 jobs in January, exceeding all forecasts. An increase in initial unemployment claims is expected today. The Trump administration is reportedly preparing a plan to end Russia's war against Ukraine next week. In Europe, the indices showed similar results to the S&P 500. ECB representative Mario Centeno stated that interest rates may need to be reduced below neutral levels to stimulate economic growth. This morning, Asian markets are seeing growth: Kospi is up 1.1%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng is up 0.9%, and the CSI 300 is up 1%. However, there are no significant positive changes in the technical picture. Oil continues to decline, falling below the 50-day moving average. U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 8.66 million barrels last week, according to EIA data.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds dropped significantly yesterday, falling below the 50-day moving average. The last time such a dynamic was observed was on December 6, but at that time, the yield quickly recovered above the moving average. Corporate bonds showed growth.
KASE Index. The KASE index declined by 0.3%. Today, with a moderately positive backdrop, the quotes may compensate for these small losses and continue consolidating slightly above the 5550 point level.
Index Stocks. Yesterday, the situation with the main active stocks in the market remained unchanged. Shares of BCC, KMG, and Kazakhtelecom continued to decline. However, today, upon market open, KZTK shares rose by 3%, which can be explained by the support at the 44,000 point level, which previously served as the upper boundary of the sideways channel. Another interesting news item was the acquisition of nearly the entire stake (99.7%) of Jusan Bank by one of the main shareholders of Kaspi.kz — Vyacheslav Kim. Despite the scale of the deal, we do not expect any sharp changes in Kaspi’s operations, the absorption of Jusan, or further consolidation of banking and e-commerce services. It was also revealed that the main shareholder of Halyk Bank, Timur Kulibayev, is negotiating a $1 billion payment to the state as part of the government’s investigation into his wealth. For now, we do not expect any significant impact on HSBK stock unless additional details affect the prospects for dividend payments.
Currency. The tenge has strengthened for the second session in a row against the dollar and continues to rise today at the opening of trading. The DXY index has stopped declining, so the support for the national currency can once again be linked to the upcoming tax period.