Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 rose 1.1% yesterday, recouping the decline following the Fed meeting. The market was supported by easing pressure from oil and bonds: Brent fell 1.6% to $104.1 per barrel, while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries retreated from 5.02% to 4.95%. Saudi Arabia expects to partially restore flows through the damaged East–West oil pipeline and arrange additional supplies via Oman. This somewhat eased concerns about an oil deficit and further acceleration in inflation. At the same time, the restoration of supplies remains partial for now, and shipping risks in the region persist. In Europe, the major indices gained 0.7–1.2%. The Bank of England kept the rate at 3.75%, though the decision was made by six votes to three, with the remaining members voting for a hike to 4%. The regulator warned of rising inflation risks, so the question of further policy tightening remains open. This morning, the positive momentum continues in Asia: Nikkei is adding about 1.4%, Kospi — 2.6%. Oil is trading around $102.5 per barrel for Brent, remaining below yesterday’s close. S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% this morning, reaching their highest levels since September 4.
KASE Index. KASE rose 0.8%, rebounding from the round level of 7,800 points as well as from an important long-term upward trendline. This was an important moment for the market, and now the index needs to hold above the current support levels. Most stocks increased, with the most notable gains in KazTransOil, Kaspi, and Halyk Bank. At the same time, trading volume in the representative list of shares fell 32.7% to 631.2 million tenge.
Index stocks. Despite the rise in shares on the local market, it is worth noting that we did not see similarly sharp moves on the LSE and Nasdaq. Kaspi gained 2.5% on KASE, but its ADS on Nasdaq edged down 0.3% to $97.43. Thus, the receipts did not support the U.S. market rebound and continued to test support at the 50-day moving average. After the rise in local shares, a price discrepancy of about 2.8% reappeared between the venues in favor of the KASE-listed paper. Kazatomprom rose 1.2%, but the session was not easy: quotes recovered from $66, where the opening took place, and climbed to $69.5 (+5.3%), but failed to hold at those levels, as resistance came from the 200-day moving average around $69. Sector peers — uranium ETFs URNM and URA — posted stronger gains, adding 2.2% and 3.2%, respectively. Halyk Bank rose 1.5% on KASE, while its GDRs on the LSE increased 0.7%. The growth leader among index constituents was KazTransOil: the shares rose 2.8%, though today they are down again by 1.1%. Apparently, it is still difficult for the stock to break through the 1,240 tenge level, where the highs of the past five months are located. Solidcore on AIX continued to rise, adding 3.8% to $13, noticeably outperforming gold, which rose 1.1%.
Currency. USDKZT fell to 445.7 tenge yesterday, and the RSI entered oversold territory. This morning, quotes remain stable, without significant changes.