Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. Yesterday’s session was marked by moderate declines across most major global indices. The S&P 500 lost 0.3%, the Dow Jones dropped 0.35%, and the Nasdaq declined by 0.25%. On the index map, semiconductor stocks were hit the hardest: Nvidia lost 2.7%, Micron fell 4.6%, and Broadcom dropped 4%. Oracle plunged 6.7% due to disappointing results. Among large-cap companies, Google gained the most (+5.6%) following announcements regarding advancements in computing with its quantum chip, Willow. Tesla also performed well, rising 2.9%. Meanwhile, investors are preparing for inflation data from last month. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, scheduled for release on Wednesday, is expected to reflect the fourth consecutive 0.3% increase in the core index, excluding food and fuel. This data will be the last significant release ahead of the Fed’s final policy meeting of the year. Currently, swap trading predicts an 80% chance of a 0.25% rate cut by the Fed this month.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 fell by 0.5% following a bearish candle on Monday, while Germany's DAX closed with a slight decline. Yesterday saw heightened intraday volatility for Chinese indices. Today, the mainland CSI 300 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng are showing moderate declines. China has commenced its annual economic work conference, where next year’s policy plans will be outlined. Top leaders are hinting at stronger stimulus measures amid the looming threat of a potential trade war with the U.S.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose for the second consecutive session, returning to levels above the 50-day moving average.
KASE Index. The KASE index continues to exhibit a downward trend due to a gradual decline. A local correction spanning three consecutive sessions is currently underway. Trading volumes have started to decrease, and part of yesterday's losses were recovered during the session. This indicates the possibility of transitioning to more neutral trading sessions.
Index Stocks. The largest decline was observed in Kazatomprom shares, which closely track the dynamics of the uranium sector. The sector experienced a downturn on Monday, December 9, when uranium ETFs URA and URNM fell by 4.2–4.5%. The trigger for this trend may have been news of a military junta seizing control of Niger’s uranium company Somaïr, which is predominantly French-owned. This development during the winter season could force the country to switch to alternative energy sources. On the other hand, on the LSE, Halyk Bank’s GDRs rose again, reaching the resistance level of $19.5. Air Astana’s GDRs also climbed, breaking above their 50-day moving average. We are observing whether the quotes can consolidate above resistance levels.
Currency. Yesterday, the ruble failed to break through the 50-day moving average resistance and weakened against the dollar for the first time after eight consecutive sessions of growth. In response, the tenge immediately reacted by weakening to 516 tenge per dollar today.