KASE has been slowly declining for the fourth consecutive session.

Our Comments and Expectations

External Background. The S&P 500 declined almost immediately after the start of trading. Given that the Nasdaq lost even more (–0.7%), tech stocks were the market underperformers yesterday. Sentiment indicators from Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and Bloomberg show that investors still maintain relatively strong bullish expectations. In Europe, leading indices have shown no price changes for the second consecutive session. In Asia this morning, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng opened down 1%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 corrected by 0.45% after a sharp rally. Oil prices have been rising for the third straight session, reaching $66 per barrel. A strong rally continues in gold, which yesterday surpassed the $4,000 per ounce mark. Futures on the S&P 500 are trading neutral at the moment.

Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries declined as investors shifted from risk assets to defensive instruments. Corporate bonds remained neutral.

KASE Index. The KASE index fell another 0.4%, marking its fourth consecutive losing session. At present, prices have returned to roughly the middle of the sideways channel formed between September 4 and 30. Trading volumes were again above average, while three index components showed price changes exceeding 1%. The daily candlestick closed without deep shadows.

Index Stocks. The largest decline was seen in Kaspi.kz shares. The exchange rate gap between KASE and Nasdaq listings narrowed to 8% in favor of the local market. ADS lost another 1% yesterday. The overall picture remains negative, with quotes approaching their August 1 lows. However, the RSI on the daily chart indicates oversold conditions, and on the 4-hour chart, a bullish divergence may form in upcoming sessions. The upcoming Q3 earnings report — likely a trigger for growth as last time — is now in focus.
The second biggest decliner was Air Astana. Its shares failed to break key resistance levels and retreated to their September 30 levels. Recall that resistance levels around 830–840 KZT currently define the stock’s medium-term technical trend.
The top gainer on the local market yesterday was Kazatomprom. Its shares rose 1.2%, while GDRs on the LSE gained 0.6%. The currency gap between the two exchanges is nearly zero. The short-term technical setup suggests consolidation, but the broader trend remains bullish.

Currency. The U.S. dollar has been weakening for the sixth session in a row. The USDKZT pair currently stands at 539.6 KZT. The tenge’s strengthening is supported by a stronger ruble and rising oil prices, even as the U.S. dollar weakens on the DXY index. Notably, the exchange rate is now approaching a medium-term upward trendline around the 537–538 KZT level.