Our Comments and Expectations
External Market Background: The three major U.S. indices closed neutrally yesterday on low trading volumes, although the Russell 2000 small-cap index rose by 1%. Initial jobless claims in the U.S. dropped to 219,000 for the week ending December 21. However, continuing claims rose to their highest level in three years, indicating that unemployed individuals are taking longer to find work. European markets remained closed. In Asia, the Japanese Nikkei 225 index showed a confident 2.9% growth over the last two trading sessions. The rise in stocks is linked to the weakening of the yen after Japan's Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, stated that the government would take measures against excessive fluctuations in the currency market. Data released on Friday also showed that inflation in Tokyo accelerated for the second consecutive month, and retail sales exceeded expectations. The Hong Kong Hang Seng index is trading neutrally after the weekend. Alibaba announced that it will establish a $4 billion e-commerce joint venture with E-Mart in South Korea. In the morning, oil rose to $74 but faced resistance at the upper boundary of the "triangle" pattern and pulled back. Uranium prices continue to decline.
Bonds: The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds remained stable yesterday. High-yield bonds are showing good growth and recovery.
KASE Index: KASE rose by 0.2%, suggesting a potential end to the local downtrend. This assumption is further supported by a 0.4% rise in quotes since the opening of the session.
Index Stocks: The local market may be starting its year-end rally. Although the index is unlikely to update its highs before the end of the year, the current recovery trend would be a satisfactory conclusion for December. Since the opening, all index stocks have shown a small but positive result. Notably, there is potential for the People's Bank of Kazakhstan's stock to rise to 252 tenge (a historical high), partial recovery of Kazatomprom's stock despite negative dynamics in the uranium market, and the continuation of the KazMunayGas rally. Attention should also be given to the local oversold condition of Kaspi stocks.
Currency: The dollar began to strengthen against the tenge in the afternoon yesterday. Today, the USDKZT exchange rate has reached 521.6 tenge. There have been no significant changes in the Dollar Index (DXY), but the ruble has stopped strengthening after the end of its tax period. Remember, the resistance level for the dollar is at 525 tenge.