Our Comments and Expectations
External background. The S&P 500 fell by 1.1%, pulling back from record highs to its lowest levels since December 3. After Oracle, another blow to the technology sector came from Broadcom, which delivered disappointing sales guidance, causing its shares to drop by 11.4%. Other semiconductor stocks also posted significant losses.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Group expects equities to reach new records (around 7,600 points) next year. Fed official Austan Goolsbee said he anticipates more interest rate cuts in 2026 than many of his colleagues, although this week he opposed the Fed’s rate-cut proposal, preferring to wait for additional inflation data.
In Europe, major indices declined more moderately, by 0.4–0.6%. According to Bloomberg, market analysts remain positive on Europe’s outlook: none of the 17 strategists surveyed expects a significant downturn. Four strategists, including those from UBS Group AG and Deutsche Bank AG, forecast gains of nearly 13%. The median forecast points to a 7% rise in the Stoxx 600, with no outright “bearish” views. Meanwhile, 60% of respondents see a rate hike by the ECB as more likely than a cut.
In Asia, major indices are predictably down this morning by around 1.3–1.8%. China’s economy showed further weakening in November, with retail sales growth hitting its slowest pace since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. S&P 500 futures are currently up 0.26%.
Bonds. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rebounded sharply, recovering after Thursday’s decline.
KASE Index. KASE posted an excellent three-session rally, recovering to early November levels. Trading volumes were elevated, largely driven by shares of Halyk Bank, which also acted as the main growth engine. However, Friday’s negative U.S. session and the weak opening in Asian markets are likely to interrupt the rally on KASE today. At today’s open, almost all stocks are moving into moderate negative territory, except for KEGOC.
Index stocks. Halyk Bank shares rose for five consecutive sessions. On Friday, prices jumped another 5.4% on trading volume of nearly KZT 700 million. No specific growth triggers were evident; most likely, stocks we previously highlighted as attractive were bought back after the latest decline driven by non-fundamental factors. At today’s open, the shares are down 1.2% and are likely, together with the index, to break the growth streak.
Air Astana shares also rose on Friday, attempting to break upward from a new consolidation range. However, today’s 1% decline is pushing them back after four sessions of gains.
Currency. On Friday, the U.S. dollar pulled back from its intraday highs, which were close to KZT 523. Today, the short USDKZT candle below the 521 level once again indicates a slowdown in the dollar’s upward momentum. Under such conditions, our local forecast of a pause in the dollar’s growth around the 521 KZT level becomes relevant again.