Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 rose significantly on Friday, fully recovering the losses accumulated between August 15 and 21. The Dow Jones jumped 1.9%, updating historical highs. The Russell 2000 index gained 4%. The Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium, which the market had been anticipating all last week and which in recent years had not brought major surprises, turned out this time to be rich in dovish comments, spurring bullish sentiment. Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed may not wait for perfect inflation readings before cutting rates, instead prioritizing risks in the labor market. “The stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market indicators allows us to act cautiously as we consider changes in our policy,” he stated on Friday.
This Friday, the market awaits the release of core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data (the Fed’s preferred measure of core inflation). The forecast for July stands at 2.9% y/y and 0.3% m/m. Earlier in the week, on Wednesday, Nvidia’s earnings report will be in the spotlight.
In Europe, indices posted more modest gains but remain at high levels — in particular, the broad Stoxx 600 and the UK’s FTSE 100. In Asia, the regional index rose by 0.6%; Hang Seng added 2.2%, CSI 300 gained 1.5%, Nikkei 225 climbed 0.4%, and Kaspi rose 1.3%. At the same time, U.S. and European index futures are currently down by 0.1–0.4%. Oil is losing 0.6% today, trading at $67.4 after last week’s rally. Gold and uranium continue to show growth.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries declined, while their prices increased. Corporate bonds across all segments — both low-rated and high-rated, as well as emerging market debt — showed a notable gain of 0.8%.
KASE Index. On Friday, the KASE index fell by 0.2%. As expected, the pace of the decline has begun to slow, and today a local market reversal is possible.
Index Constituents. Judging by the opening session, the index is up 0.4%, paving the way for a recovery toward resistance levels around 6,850 points. This forms the boundaries of a sideways channel with a lower level at 6,690 and an upper level near 6,870. Most likely, today we will see a rebound in stocks that declined last Thursday and Friday. This is also confirmed by the growth of GDRs/ADS in the previous session. The largest increase came from Kazatomprom, whose GDRs rose 4%. In its H1 2025 report dated August 22, the company lowered its 2026 production forecast, noting that the current supply-demand balance and existing unmet demand are still insufficient to return to 100% production levels. Shares of Halyk Bank and Kaspi also rose on Friday. At today’s opening, BCC shares are also gaining after being among last week’s underperformers.
Currency. The U.S. dollar has been weakening against the tenge for six consecutive sessions (including today). In the morning, USDKZT is testing the support level of 536.7 tenge.