Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 index fell immediately at the market open yesterday, following a mixed start to the earnings season for major tech companies that had released results after the previous day’s close. Meta shares dropped 11.3% after issuing a forecast of higher expenses for next year. Microsoft lost 2.9% as data center costs exceeded Wall Street’s expectations. Nvidia fell 2% after Donald Trump said he had not discussed approval of Blackwell chip sales to China with Xi Jinping. Among the tech giants, only Alphabet (Google) delivered strong results, showing solid revenue growth in the past quarter.
After the market closed, Apple reported strong overall sales despite weaker results in China, while Amazon posted robust cloud business growth and surged 13.1% in after-hours trading.
Meanwhile, Trump and Xi Jinping announced a de-escalation, reaching a truce on tariffs and rare earth metals.
In Asia this morning, markets are mixed: Hong Kong and mainland China are down, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 is up 2.1%, hitting new all-time highs. S&P 500 futures are up 0.7%, supported by Amazon’s gains.
In commodities, copper continues to slide for the second consecutive session, while oil remains stable around $64 per barrel.
Bonds. U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise following Powell’s remarks. Corporate bonds are down for the second straight session.
KASE Index. The KASE index is attempting to regain lost ground. Yesterday it rose 1.3%, reaching the lower boundary of the sideways channel observed from early September to mid-October. Given today’s 0.9% rise at the open, the recovery attempt appears to have a good chance of success.
Index Components. BCC shares are once again signaling potential recovery. Yesterday’s rise pushed prices toward the descending trendline, and today’s movement broke through the slanted resistance level. This breakout looks more convincing than the previous attempt.
Among the top gainers were KazMunayGas shares, which rose 2.1%. Technically, this growth has not yet significantly impacted the chart, but if it continues today, the stock could break out of consolidation and retest local highs.
Kazatomprom gained 2.5% and still trades below its GDRs on the LSE. Notably, almost all Kazakh securities traded abroad (except Kaspi.kz) are now priced higher on foreign exchanges — a rare occurrence.
Meanwhile, Kaspi.kz fell again on Nasdaq, fully erasing its recent gains. The company’s quarterly report is scheduled for November 10.
Currency. The dollar is rising for the second session in a row, though gains remain modest. On Forex, USDKZT is trading at 530.7 tenge. The dollar also strengthened 1.1% against the ruble.