Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 rose by 1.8% on Friday. Notably, despite high volatility, last week became the best since November 2023, closing with a 5.7% gain. The VIX fear index fell to 37.55 points, although this appears to be more of a consolidation than a sustained decline. A new corporate earnings season kicked off on Friday with reports from JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock. JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley beat expectations on earnings and revenue thanks to strong trading results, while Wells Fargo & Co. missed expectations on net interest income. According to Michael Hartnett from Bank of America, investors should sell any rising stocks until the US and China end their trade war and the Federal Reserve intervenes. Economic data showed consumer sentiment had already worsened before the policy shift on Wednesday — inflation expectations surged to multi-year highs.
In Europe, markets closed with modest gains for the first time since April 2, and futures point to a positive open: Stoxx 600 and DAX could each rise by around 2.2%. Asian markets are also mostly higher this morning, with the Hang Seng in Hong Kong leading the gains at 2.1%.
The positive trend in Europe and Asia was supported by news that Trump had temporarily suspended import tariffs on certain consumer electronics — from smartphones to laptops — boosting market sentiment after a volatile week. However, he noted this was a temporary measure, and new tariffs would later apply to the sector.
Commodity markets are also up: oil climbed to $65 per barrel, copper recovered around 40% of recent losses, and gold once again reached new all-time highs.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year treasuries continues to rise sharply — only one of the past five sessions was positive for bond prices.
KASE index. The KASE index remains in a consolidation phase despite ongoing high intraday price swings. After falling by 0.8% yesterday, quotes are up by 0.4% at today’s open.
Index stocks. On Friday, Kazatomprom shares saw the biggest decline and were also among the worst-performing GDRs. However, in the US market, uranium companies posted strong gains — the URA and URNM sector ETFs rose by 4.5–4.9%, signaling a possible reversal in the downtrend, though key resistance levels have yet to be broken. Depositary receipts of Halyk Bank and Kaspi posted slight gains, while Air Astana added 2.5%. Today, Kazatomprom and Kazakhtelecom are rebounding by around 1% at the open following Friday’s losses. On Friday, the company released its annual report — our updated assessment will follow tomorrow.
Currency. The USDKZT exchange rate is trading at 518.5 today, with no significant changes. Meanwhile, the DXY dollar index continues to decline despite rising yields, now falling below the 100 mark. The euro is strengthening in response — the EURKZT exchange rate on the forex market has reached a historic high of 590.1.