The external background of the S&P 500 closed with a slight decline. Despite the fact that the so-called triple witchcraft day passed on Friday, when options and futures worth $ 5.5 trillion expired, this did not bring much volatility to the market, even though trading volume amounted to 18 billion shares, which is 55% higher than the three-month average. In addition, most of the volumes passed closer to the end of the trading session. Despite the relative calm of the market, Nvidia was still subject to volatility and decreased by 3.22%, leaving the first place as the most expensive company in the world. It is reported that the number of contracts linked to NVDA securities was second only to the S&P 500 index itself. The XLK technology sector ETF fell 0.17% on Friday. Bank of America reports that in the week to June 19, technology funds received a record inflow of $8.7 billion. This week, the focus will be on speeches by Fed members (today and tomorrow), consumer confidence in the United States (Tuesday), the PCE personal consumption expenditure index (Thursday), consumer sentiment in the United States from the University of Michigan (Thursday) and inflation data for a number of countries. In Europe, quotes declined, the Stoxx 600 lost 0.7% and the DAX 0.5%, but this is not yet an indicator of the fading trend of recovery, which began recently. In the morning, the Hong Kong Hang Seng index has been falling for the third session in a row. The rest of the indexes show a multidirectional movement. Oil has been losing 0.9% in the morning and falling to $ 84.2 amid the strengthening of the dollar index DXY. The picture is similar for other commodities – copper and gold.
Bonds: On Friday, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds remained largely unchanged. Corporate bonds were also neutral.
KASE Index: The KASE Index is entering consolidation again after decent growth on June 18-19. The resistance level around 5115 points still has a strong influence on the local picture, and we can only start talking about future growth prospects for the market after breaking through this level. In our view, this will signal the end of the seasonal summer stagnation of the KASE Index.
Stocks: Most stocks in the local market were either slightly down or neutral. The biggest growth was observed in Kazakhtelecom, which is notable as the stock has shown an increase following the announcement of the sale price of Altel/Tele2. An important resistance level is at 36,000 tenge, and if this level is broken, we recommend considering a purchase. The largest decline was seen in Kaztransoil; however, this did not change the overall picture for the stocks. Among the foreign listings of our stocks, shares of Kaspi and Kazatomprom increased slightly. Air Astana shares lost 2.8%, amid news of conflicts between the airline and its employees.
Currency: The USDKZT rose significantly on Friday and tested another resistance level – 465 tenge. We believe that either this level or 468.9 will become the main resistance line for the dollar, at least for the local horizon.
Key Market News:
(=) Tenge: The head of the National Bank does not believe that the dollar will reach 500 tenge by the end of the year.