Our Commentary and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 rose by 0.32% yesterday, hitting new all-time highs. U.S. GDP data showed the economy grew faster than initially estimated. Investor attention is now focused on the release of the PCE deflator — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The July reading is expected to show inflation acceleration: the median forecast points to a 0.3% monthly gain, bringing the annual rate to 2.9% (up from 2.8% in June).
From the Fed, Governor Christopher Waller stated his willingness to support a 25 basis point rate cut next month and signaled the potential for further easing over the next three to six months. Meanwhile, Lisa Cook has filed a lawsuit against Donald Trump, with her lawyers claiming her dismissal was due to an unintentional "technical error" in a 2021 mortgage. Cook described Trump’s pressure as an attempt to usurp power at the Federal Reserve.
In Europe, markets showed modest declines: the Stoxx 600 fell by 0.2%, while the DAX closed nearly flat. The EU has proposed lifting tariffs on U.S. industrial goods and granting preferential access for U.S. agricultural products.
Asian markets are trading mixed this morning: Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and mainland China’s CSI 300 are both up 0.8% ahead of earnings reports from Alibaba and BYD. Goldman Sachs raised its target for the CSI 300, but Morgan Stanley warned of overheating signs. Tokyo inflation slowed sharply in August to 2.5% year-over-year.
This weekend, President Vladimir Putin is expected to meet with Indian Prime Minister Modi and China’s Xi Jinping, where Russia will likely request stable levels of oil imports from India. Brent is trading at $67.5 per barrel this morning. S&P 500 futures are down 0.1%.
Bonds. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries continue to decline, approaching their lowest levels since August 5. Emerging market bonds are also rising, catching up with their U.S. counterparts.
KASE Index. The KASE index rose 0.9% yesterday, closing at new all-time highs. Notably, the rally continued into the morning session, signaling the start of a breakout above local resistance levels.
Index Stocks. The rally in CCBN (BCC) shares remains the primary driver of the KASE index, with its weighting now approaching 19%. After a 3.8% gain yesterday, CCBN is up another 3.2% at today’s open. Shares of KazMunayGas (KMG) also rose yesterday, although the oil market hasn’t yet shown strong signals for continued upside.
Kazatomprom is performing well in today’s session. While its GDRs on the LSE didn’t rise yesterday, the broader uranium sector advanced by 2–3.3%. Reports suggest that Sweden’s government has proposed lifting its ban on uranium mining to reduce import dependency and support a nuclear energy revival. If KZAP shares close above 24,300 KZT today, it would mark a technical signal for continued growth.
Currency. The dollar is trading at 538.4 KZT this morning. Technically, the USDKZT pair appears to be forming a "bull flag" pattern — a potential signal for further dollar appreciation.