Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 saw growth at the start of the session, but by mid-day, it began to decline and eventually lost 0.3%. The biggest losses came from the semiconductor sector, led by AMD, whose stock dropped by 10.6%. Meta reported revenue of $40.6 billion, 19% higher than last year, but the growth rate of digital advertising has slowed down. Despite the revenue increase, the company's stock fell by 3.2% in after-market trading. Microsoft had a similar situation, with a 3.7% drop despite a 13% rise in revenue to $56.5 billion. Macroeconomic news showed strong positions for the U.S. economy. GDP growth for Q3 2024 was 2.8% year-on-year, slightly below the previous estimate of 3.3%. Meanwhile, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose by 2.2% in Q2, above the forecast of 2.1%, but significantly lower than the previous 2.8% increase. On the labor market, ADP’s report showed that the private sector added 233,000 jobs, the highest since July 2023. After this news, traders lowered their expectations for a policy easing by the Fed. In Europe, indices showed a notable decline: the Stoxx 600 fell below its 50-day moving average, and the DAX retreated from its historical highs. The triggers for the decline were weak reports and a general deterioration in sentiment in the industrial and consumer sectors. Issues with automakers in Germany and Italy were especially noted. In Asia, the markets are down this morning, except for the Chinese indices, which remain neutral. Oil prices rose to $72.5 per barrel.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries was neutral yesterday. Corporate bonds showed a slight decline.
KASE Index. KASE closed neutrally yesterday. It seems that the indices completed the local decline wave (October 23-28), which can be seen as a positive signal, as the technical picture previously indicated the possibility of a more negative market development.
Stocks in the Index. The local market is showing restrained trading sessions, with intraday volatility being observed only in Kaspi and Kazakhtelecom. Halyk Bank and Kcell are currently in a growth trend: Kcell is reaching new highs, and HSBK is approaching August peaks. On the Nasdaq, Kaspi’s stock rose 4.3% yesterday in an unstable market, likely due to positive comments from Fitch rating agency, which indicated that large purchases would not negatively affect fintech ratings. On the LSE, Kazatomprom is yet to decide on the direction due to the local decline in uranium prices.
Currency. Today, the dollar is trading around 488.4 tenge. On the global stage, the U.S. dollar is showing a slight decline after the rapid growth seen throughout most of October.