KASE remains in a sideways trend despite the volatility of securities

External Background: Thursday's session was once again negative for the U.S. market. The S&P 500 lost 0.6%, while the NASDAQ fell by 1.1%, with the technology sector leading the decline. Notably, major players experienced significant drops, with CRM losing 19.7% after a disappointing report, and giants like Nvidia, Microsoft, Adobe, Oracle, and Micron showing corrections ranging from 3.4% to 6.6%. However, other sectors, such as financial, consumer, industrial, utilities, and real estate, ended the session on a positive note. From the Federal Reserve, John Williams stated that he expects inflation to continue decreasing in the second half of 2024 and that policy is in a good position. Austin Goolsbee emphasized the importance of lowering inflation in the housing market. It is worth noting that earlier statistics showed that pending home sales in the U.S. fell by 7.7%, marking a four-year low in April due to higher loan rates. Bloomberg Intelligence believes that the average net profit of companies in the S&P 500 index will exceed 13% in the second half of the year. Despite the declines in U.S. indices, European stocks managed to show growth, with the Stoxx rising by 0.6% and the British FTSE 100 breaking a six-session losing streak. Oil lost 2% and returned to levels seen on May 10, despite EIA data showing the largest drop in U.S. inventories in five weeks. An OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for Sunday, which is currently in focus for traders.

Bonds: The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds decreased to 4.55% after two sessions of active growth. Bond ETFs focusing on high-yield U.S. and emerging market bonds gained 0.4% to 0.6%.

KASE Index: The index fell by 0.6% yesterday. Although this is the second consecutive decline and represents a loss of about 1.3% since May 21, this trend has not significantly changed the technical picture for KASE.

Index Stocks: Kaztransoil shares led the decline, falling by 6.5% due to a dividend cut to 860 tenge, essentially losing only the positions acquired from those same dividends. At peak prices (920 tenge), the shares provided a dividend yield of 7%, and before a brief price spike, 7.55%, which seems to become the norm for dividend stocks on KASE. Kazatomprom shares also fell by 2.9%, apparently continuing to react to the company's latest report. Yesterday, we expressed the opinion that the shift in delivery schedules for clients should not impact the company's long-term results. Therefore, the continuation of this correction has one positive side: the shares may become more attractive for purchase at a lower price and have good growth potential. Aira Astana GDRs also fell by 2.7%, again failing to break through the 50-day moving average. Kaspi grew by 1% on the NYSE and currently looks better than other Kazakhstani stocks from a technical perspective.

Currency: The dollar rose yesterday, breaking above the 50-day moving average against the tenge and nearing the level of 446.4 that we noted. However, morning trading in the forex market does not indicate further upward movement.

Key Market News

(=) KEGC: KEGOC has paid dividends on common shares KZ1C00000959 (KEGC) for the second half of 2023