Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. On Friday, the S&P 500 index opened with a sharp rise and remained at that level until the end of trading. Prices increased by 1%, closing slightly below the round 6000-point mark. The leaders of growth were technology stocks: Nvidia and Broadcom rose by 3.1% and 3.5%, respectively. Intel surged by 9.25% after reports of a potential acquisition by an unknown (or deliberately undisclosed) buyer. Talks between Trump and Xi Jinping before the inauguration were also positively received, where, in addition to trade issues, the TikTok social media topic was discussed. On Monday, markets will focus on Trump's inauguration. According to Jefferies, historically, the S&P 500 index demonstrates uneven dynamics during inauguration periods, but in the following months, the situation usually improves. On average, the index grows by 8.3% over six months after the inauguration and by 9.5% over the year. According to Bank of America strategists, Trump's return to the White House will likely protect US stocks from a major sell-off. In Europe, Friday’s session was also successful: DAX and FTSE 100 indices hit new highs, while Stoxx 600 grew confidently for the third session in a row. This dynamic is related to expectations of easing monetary policy and strong quarterly results from companies. In commodity markets, copper corrected after four consecutive sessions of growth. Oil also declined but remained above $80 per barrel without significant losses.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year US government bonds remained neutral after two consecutive sessions of decline. Corporate bonds showed slight growth.
KASE Index. KASE closed neutrally on Friday, continuing to consolidate in a local sideways trend. The movement of stocks within the index was once again mixed.
Index Stocks. The growth leader was BCC, which gained 1.9%. After a brief slowdown in growth, the stock returned to its previous momentum, maintaining high trading volumes. As before, the trigger for growth remains unclear. The second-highest growth was seen in Kcell, which began testing resistance at the upper boundary of the current sideways channel. KazMunayGas stocks have been correcting for the third session in a row, despite the stabilization of oil prices around the $80 mark. One of the factors of pressure may be the reduction in the number of market makers for these stocks. On the LSE, the People's Bank GDRs rose by 1.2%. This did not reverse the stock but allowed it to enter a local sideways trend. Kaspi.kz ADS increased by 1.1%, again hinting at a potential rebound. However, the idea of a reversal from current levels is still considered local and speculative. Kazatomprom declined by 1.6%, despite uranium ETFs rising by 1.7-2.5% on the US market.
Currency. On Friday, the dollar closed slightly above 530 tenge. The National Bank announced it would sell gold on international markets to support the national currency. The planned annual sales volume will be $6 billion, evenly distributed across the quarters.