KASE remains in a sideways trend

Our comments and expectations

 

External backdrop. The S&P 500 continued to rise yesterday despite some decline in optimism in the morning related to developments in the Middle East. Later it became known that Israel agreed to direct negotiations with Lebanon, strengthening expectations that the ceasefire agreement brokered by the U.S. would hold.

Oil posted a slight increase but remained below $100 per barrel. Donald Trump said he is “very optimistic” about a deal with Iran, although issues such as Israel’s military offensive in Lebanon and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved.

Among macroeconomic releases, consumer spending data stood out: in February it barely increased amid persistent inflation, which is expected to accelerate in the next report to be published today.

Consumer prices in the U.S. are expected to have risen in March at the fastest pace in nearly four years due to higher energy prices amid the war with Iran and the impact of tariffs. Economists forecast the consumer price index to rise by 0.9% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year. The number of continuing jobless claims in the U.S. fell to the lowest level in nearly two years, confirming stabilization in the labor market. European indices posted mostly neutral results, except for the DAX, which declined by 1.1%.

This morning sentiment in Asia is positive: the CSI 300, Nikkei 225 and KOSPI are up by 1.4–1.8%. Futures on the S&P 500 are down 0.1% and are forming a bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart. Oil is trading around $97 per barrel, showing no significant change compared to the previous session.

KASE Index. The KASE index continues to move in a sideways trend without noticeable changes. The only relatively notable event during yesterday’s session was a surge in trading volumes in Air Astana shares.

Index stocks. Air Astana (AIRA) shares traded KZT 1.94 billion yesterday, while the daily candlestick did not show a wide price range during the session, which may indicate a planned nature of such transactions.

The strongest growth yesterday was shown by Kaspi.kz shares. However, on Nasdaq the stock did not display positive signals: after failing to break above an important downward trend line on Wednesday, the price pulled back by 0.9%, worsening the technical picture, although it does not fully rule out the possibility of a retest. The second-largest gainers yesterday were KazTransOil (KZTO) shares, which are correcting by 0.9% today. At today’s market open, a surge in activity was observed in Bank CenterCredit shares: at the beginning of the session they rose to KZT 4,619 but then pulled back below KZT 4,500. Overall, most stocks continue to trade within a sideways trend.

Currency. The dollar strengthened during the session and attempted to test the resistance level around KZT 480. Judging by the daily candlestick, it failed to break through, and buyers of the tenge (likely non-residents) launched a counter-move today — USDKZT declined to KZT 472.4. The ruble is also strengthening and returning to levels seen before the shortage of dollar liquidity emerged in the market (prior to early March).