Our Comments and Expectations
External background. U.S. stock markets closed yesterday with gains, reaching record highs. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose by 0.48% and 0.94% respectively. The key newsmaker was Intel, whose shares surged 23% after it was announced that Nvidia would buy a 4% stake in the company for $5 billion. Nvidia itself also gained 3.5%, despite earlier negative news about weak demand from China. S&P 500 futures are showing a neutral result this morning. In Europe, the broad Stoxx 600 index rose by 0.8% along with tech companies, similar to the U.S. markets. Leading European semiconductor stocks jumped 8–9%. In Asia this morning, Japan’s Nikkei 225 is down 0.5%, and South Korea’s Kospi is down 0.7%. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.4%, while China’s CSI 300 posted a neutral result. Oil prices fell by 0.6%, possibly on the back of weakness in the U.S. labor market. The dollar index rebounded sharply from recent lows and the Fed’s meeting but still remains in a downtrend.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries continued its gradual rise, reaching 4.11%.
KASE Index. Yesterday, the KASE index recovered all of its Wednesday losses, rising 1.4%. Quotes bounced off the local trendline, and the dynamics of the next few days will determine the short-term trajectory.
Index stocks. This time the situation was reversed: only one company (Kazakhtelecom) showed a decline, while all other stocks rose. The biggest gainer was Kaspi, whose shares climbed 3.5% following a solid rebound of its GDRs on Nasdaq the day before. Further growth is likely after breaking the downtrend, which may be confirmed in the coming days. Kazatomprom shares also regained ground, rising 2.6% in line with London trading. Overall, sentiment around uranium and uranium stocks remains positive. A similar pattern was seen in BCC shares, which had fallen for four straight days. However, after breaking below the local trendline on Wednesday, a quick recovery looks unlikely. Trading volumes remain around the 20-day average. Another notable gainer yesterday was KazMunayGas, whose shares rose 1.2% and set new all-time highs. That said, a local correction looks more probable now after reaching 21,900 tenge, the upper boundary of the trend. We also note Air Astana, whose shares rose 1% on very strong volumes. A recovery in the company’s stock in the coming weeks now looks quite possible.
Currency. The dollar lost 0.35 tenge yesterday and has been unable to break the 542 tenge level all week, where there is likely a large seller. Nevertheless, the scenario of moving toward 544 tenge remains valid.