Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. The S&P 500 slipped 0.2% yesterday, posting a second negative session after four consecutive sessions of gains. At the same time, the VIX volatility index continued to decline, falling to 15.14 points—its lowest level in nearly a month. Oil acted as a restraining factor, jumping 4.6% to $83 per barrel for Brent amid heightened tensions in the Middle East and a lack of clarity regarding an agreement to resume operations of the Strait of Hormuz. According to local media reports on a proposed Iran–Oman agreement to manage this critical waterway, Iran intends to ban American and Israeli vessels from passing through the Strait of Hormuz and to demand compensation from hostile countries before they are allowed to use it. Separately, there were reports that Iran’s naval forces struck “hostile targets” at the entrance to the strait. The latest data continue to reflect the resilience of the labor market: initial jobless claims came in at 199K versus a 202K forecast, remaining at a very low level for the third week in a row. Continuing claims, however, rose to 1.801M, pointing to some slowing in re-employment. As for the unemployment report and Nonfarm Payrolls, economists expect job growth of 80K following a smaller-than-expected increase of 57K in June, with the unemployment rate at 4.2%. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 added only 0.2% but managed to set a new all-time high. This morning, sentiment in Asia is calm, especially given the high volatility in Japan and Korea in recent months. S&P 500 futures are trading flat at the moment, while oil, after yesterday’s surge, has run into its 200-day moving average.
KASE Index. KASE followed the U.S. market and posted a minimal decline of 3 points. Nevertheless, de facto the streak of six consecutive rising sessions was interrupted, and most likely the market will take a pause after the upswing and move into consolidation.
Index stocks. The results of yesterday’s session were modest: no high volatility and no significant net price changes amid slightly lower trading volumes. Shares of the People’s Bank posted the biggest gain, allowing the stock to reach its highest levels since May 8. Quotes are continuing to rise slowly but steadily, which is also evident today at the London session open. The biggest decline was in Kazatomprom shares, down 0.9%. Today, quotes are testing the 50-day moving average for the third session in a row. Kaspi, meanwhile, fell 0.4% near May highs and resistance levels. Today we draw attention to the morning jump in gold prices, which has already nearly broken through all three key moving averages and may positively affect Solidcore quotes.
Currency. The dollar found support yesterday at 466 tenge and bounced higher. Today, USDKZT is already trading at 470 tenge. Note that the ruble continues to weaken against the tenge, and the tenge, accordingly, is strengthening against the ruble. Today, RUBKZT quotes are falling to 5.74, which is already quite close to the ruble’s March lows.