External background.
Despite the day off on the US stock exchanges, the rest of the world's leading indexes continued to grow. The Stoxx 600 rose for the second day in a row and broke through its 50-day average. The situation is similar with the German DAX, which also broke through the 50 MA level. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.83%. In the morning, the Korean Kospi saw an increase of 1.2% in the Asian markets at once. There is a slight decline in Japan, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng is losing 0.9%. S&P 500 futures are up 0.1%. Today, the central event in the US market will be the Non-farm Payrolls report, which will show how many jobs the economy added outside the agricultural sector in June, as well as show the unemployment rate. Economists expect about 195,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate at around 4%. Oil reached $87.5 yesterday, showing a 13.5% recovery in one month. Copper has been rising for the fifth consecutive session and is testing the resistance of its 50-day moving average today.
Bonds.
The yield of 10-year US bonds has been at around 4,355% since morning, and the securities themselves are trading neutrally.
The KASE index.
KASE grew by 1% yesterday and has been growing by another 0.4% since opening today. On the one hand, this may be the influence of foreign markets, which have also been actively growing for the last 2 sessions, but on the other hand, such growth may be a sign of the expected market activation after the June pause. In this case, the market is now at the very beginning of the summer rally.
Index shares.
The largest city has always been beyond the Caspian Sea. Again, these securities show active growth, although they are still slightly cheaper than their counterparts from the New York Stock Exchange (by 1.1%). Despite the rapid growth, our local warnings still remain in force – at the cash register, the growth above the resistance levels is due to the weakening of the tenge, while the quotes on the New York have not yet overcome them. Nevertheless, I am trying to understand what the "labor market" means, but this may lead to people becoming citizens in the American market, which will have a lasting impact on the Caspian Sea. BCC shares were in second place in terms of growth yesterday – the securities came out of consolidation, which makes it possible to consider them for local purchase again, based on the continuing growing trend and technical signals for growth, but so far without accompanying fundamental signals. Kazakhstan has once again grown by 1.4% compared to last year, but due to the high support of the sovereign, current securities will not necessarily be able to reach high 50-day figures, which cost 41.3 US dollars. Kazakhtelecom has been growing by 0.8% since the opening, and if we take into account the current session as a plus, then we can calculate that out of the last 13 sessions, the shares have declined in only one. Investors buying shares now should take into account that the materials for the VOS will most likely already become known to shareholders at the next session (July 9), and depending on them, the volatility of the securities may jump sharply immediately after the opening of this session.
Currency.
In the morning, the dollar breaks through another resistance level and goes to the last line of “defense” before historical highs against the tenge – the resistance level of 479.8 tenge. The current weakening of the national currency, in our opinion, looks excessive.