Our Comments and Expectations
External background. The S&P 500 rose 0.8%, continuing its recovery after the August 1 decline, while the Nasdaq renewed its highs. Sources report that the U.S. and Russia are seeking to reach an agreement to end the war in Ukraine, which would formalize Russia’s territorial gains captured during the military invasion. Trump said he plans to meet with Putin “in the very near future.” Among notable news — the U.S. government is preparing for the IPO of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac worth around $30 billion. One of the key economic reports this week will be inflation data: U.S. consumers likely felt a slight rise in core inflation in July as retailers raised prices on goods subject to higher import duties. According to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, July’s core Consumer Price Index is expected to rise by 0.3% compared to 0.2% in June. Notably, in neighboring Canada, a labor market report showed a loss of 40,800 jobs — the largest drop since January 2022. In Europe, indices showed a neutral dynamic, and in Asian markets today there was also no significant movement. In commodities, gold is showing increased volatility: on Friday, prices closed at historic highs following the introduction of tariffs on one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars, but this morning they are pulling back. Oil is trading at $66.3, while S&P 500 futures are up 0.12% at the moment.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries continues to recover, reaching 4.29%.
KASE Index. On Friday, the KASE Index jumped 2.1%. Such a strong single-day gain is the highest since April 24, 2023.
Index stocks. Friday’s session met our expectations for growth in Bank CenterCredit and Kaspi shares. The largest increase was shown by BCC — up 4.5% in a single day. In our previous review, we noted that the stock showed signs of a possible new growth wave, and now the first, and quite significant, step has been made. Second in growth were KazMunayGas shares, which was less obvious given that oil has been declining for seven consecutive sessions and the dollar is rising at a slower pace than in July. Kaspi shares jumped 2.4% — here we see the most organic growth from a technical analysis perspective: on Nasdaq, the stock broke above a downward trendline that had been in place since July 2024, thereby signaling a more long-term uptrend. Kcell shares rose 2.1%, but there were no breakouts or new highs — only a recovery of lost positions.
Currency. Today, the USDKZT pair is trading at 540.9, fully in line with the upward channel. There is local resistance at 542.75, but the channel’s direction suggests the dollar could rise to 550 after August 20.