Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. The S&P 500 gained 1.3% over the latest trading sessions, supported by declining oil prices and strong first-quarter financial results. The bulk of the increase came during Thursday’s session, when the index jumped 1% and updated its all-time highs. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 4.5% in the first quarter. Core PCE accelerated to 4.3% from 2.7%. The U.S. economy expanded by 2% year-over-year in Q1 2026 (vs. expectations of 2.3%). Growth accelerated compared to the fourth quarter, when it stood at 0.5%. In Europe, major indices posted more moderate gains of 1.4–1.5%, but did not reach new highs. Asian markets are rising this morning: Hang Seng is up 1.6%, while South Korea’s Kospi has surged 5.1%. The MSCI Asia index is approaching its all-time high reached on February 27, shortly before the military conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran began. Among geopolitical developments, Trump stated that the U.S. will send neutral vessels through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday, without involving naval forces. Bessent noted that Iran’s oil industry is “beginning to crack” and may be forced to shut down wells “within the next week.” S&P 500 futures are currently trading flat, although they showed gains earlier in the morning. Oil is trading at $108.6 following declines on Thursday and Friday.
KASE Index. At the end of last week, the KASE index dropped below the 7,800-point level but found support and managed to gain 0.6% on Thursday. On the one hand, holding above 7,800 is a positive signal, but on the other hand, the overall picture remains unchanged: the index corrected and returned below key resistance levels around 7,900 and 7,980 points.
Index stocks. On Thursday, the strongest gains in the local market were recorded by KazTransOil and KMG shares. After a prolonged decline, KZTO showed signs of a potential reversal but failed to break key resistance levels. KMG rose by 1.6%, but is down 1.2% at today’s open and remains in a sideways trend overall. On the LSE, Kazatomprom GDRs rose by 3.8%; however, in our view, there has been no significant change in the technical picture: on Friday, prices fell by 0.9% and remained slightly below resistance levels. A more notable rebound was seen in Air Astana GDRs, which gained 3.2% over two sessions. Halyk Bank GDRs rose by 1.2% and still have around 2% upside potential toward their historical highs.
Currency. The U.S. dollar has remained slightly above the 463 tenge level for the third consecutive session. By the end of the week, USDKZT is expected to test the downtrend formed since early March. Today, the National Bank announced plans to sell $400–500 million from the National Fund in May, as well as KZT 354 billion ($764 million) as part of mirror operations related to gold purchases. Notably, $502 million was purchased for the Unified Pension Fund last month, although it remains unclear whether similar purchases will be made this month.