Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 showed a slight gain in yesterday's session. The quotes spent most of the trading in the negative zone, but began to rise at the end of the day. Nvidia declined by another 2.85%, but soared up by 9% already in the postmarket, after the publication of a positive report. Revenue in the fourth quarter more than tripled compared to a year earlier and amounted to $22.1 billion against a forecast of $20.4 billion. Profit jumped almost nine-fold to $12.3 billion. In addition, investors were pleased that the company projected revenue for the current period at $24 billion, which is more than three times more than a year earlier and above the average analyst forecast of $21.9 billion. Against the background of such news, futures for the S&P 500 index are growing by 0.74% at the moment. Meanwhile, the minutes of the Fed's last meeting showed that most officials are still more worried about the risk of lowering interest rates too early than about the potential damage of a hard PREP to the economy. Policymakers want to see more evidence that inflation is moving firmly towards the 2% target before cutting interest rates. In Europe, the session was held with moderate volatility, with the FTSE 100 falling the most by 0.73%. In Asia, the Hong Kong Hang Seng continues to grow in the morning. Japan's Nikkei 225 is growing by 2.2% thanks to the technology sector, which allows it to exceed the levels of the end of 1989 and reach historical highs. Oil rose slightly, but did not break through local resistance levels. Uranium dropped below $100 per pound.
Bonds. The 10-year yield rose yesterday amid the Fed's concern about the rate cut in the minutes of the last meeting. Corporate bonds showed a slight decline.
The KASE index. The index declined for the first time yesterday after 11 sessions of continuous growth. By yesterday, the quotes were approaching the RSI level around 87 points, which indicated that the market was already significantly overbought. We believe that the index will further reduce the RSI level, which will require a local pause in growth.
Index shares. After two sessions of growth over 9%, the BCC yesterday showed a drop of 7.7% on the trading volume of 130 million tenge. It seems that some investors decided to fix positions yesterday after strong growth. At the same time, it is worth noting that the volatility within the session was much higher than the actual price deviation at the end of the session. Yesterday, the quotes reached a maximum of 1,559 tenge, which indicates an initial increase in quotations, which prompted the fixation of positions, followed by a decrease to 1,315 tenge – a deep instant sale. However, we also note a positive moment, where some other stocks – Kcell, KEGOC and Kaspi – showed growth above 1%, which mitigated the decline of BCC. The Kaspi on the LSE rose 5.4%, also showing volatility within the trading day. At the maximum, the quotes were close to our local target of $103. Kazatoprom is experiencing a painful decline, which, after breaking through the 50-day average, begins to move lower to the trend line around $39-40.
Currency. Yesterday, the dollar fell against the tenge to the level of 449.5. It seems that the 50-day moving average is keeping the US currency from rising so far.
Key market news
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