Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 opened lower and remained at the same levels until the end of the trading day. According to the latest research by Bank of America, investors have reduced their investments in U.S. stocks by a record amount in history, highlighting a massive rotation in global markets. Fund managers reported that their allocation to U.S. stocks is around 23%, which is 40 percentage points lower than in the previous survey. The next key focus for investors will be the Fed’s rate decision, with no changes expected. Bloomberg reports that the Fed’s quarterly dot plot, set to be released on Wednesday, may appear hawkish. Meanwhile, U.S. industrial production jumped 0.9% in February, marking the highest increase in a year, driven by a rise in auto manufacturing. After yesterday’s conversation between Putin and Trump, it was revealed that the Russian president rejected a proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine but agreed to limit attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure. Trump called this a victory in negotiations. In Europe, indices rose, confirming signs of investor rotation out of U.S. stocks. This morning, the Hang Seng’s growth momentum is slowing. BofA strategists believe that the rally in Chinese stocks may face a “significant correction” soon, given its resemblance to the boom-and-bust cycle of 2015. Oil prices fell close to $70 per barrel, while other tracked commodities gained.
Bonds. The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds remains in a local sideways trend.
KASE Index. The KASE Index declined for the first time after four consecutive sessions of growth. Based on its dynamics, quotes tested the resistance level around 5,650 points during the session before pulling back.
Index Stocks. Air Astana shares fell by 1.4% yesterday. The situation is similar to the KASE index dynamics: quotes touched the 800 tenge level, which acted as resistance, before retreating. The largest decline was recorded in BCC shares, but the overall picture remains unchanged, with the stock remaining in local consolidation. Kazakhtelecom maintains a solid growth pace and attempted to break the 48,000 tenge mark yesterday. Kaspi.kz gained 1.2%, but its ADS on Nasdaq dropped by 2.7%, likely linked to the S&P 500’s 1.1% decline. Halyk Bank’s GDRs pulled back from their highs. We have adjusted KazTransOil’s target price to 1,060 tenge. The company’s Q4 2024 revenue, although record-high, showed only a modest increase. However, EBITDA margins significantly improved year-on-year, and net profit strengthened. The 2024 dividend could amount to 82 tenge.
Currency. This morning, the dollar is trading at 498.4 tenge, with no significant changes from the previous session. The ruble continued to strengthen, falling below 82 per dollar yesterday. The DXY index remains stable, though an upward divergence has formed on its chart.