Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. The S&P 500 experienced another volatile session yesterday amid conflicting statements from the White House about the absence of military escort for tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, although earlier the U.S. Secretary of Energy had stated the opposite. Nevertheless, this news weighed on oil prices, with Brent trading this morning at around $87.6 per barrel. Meanwhile, G7 countries have asked their main energy agency to prepare scenarios for releasing emergency oil reserves. According to media reports, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has proposed the largest oil stock release in history. It could exceed the 182 million barrels that member countries released in two stages in 2022 when Russia launched its war against Ukraine. A decision from the countries is expected on Wednesday. At the same time, the conflict in the Middle East has not escalated with new exchanges of attacks. President Donald Trump warned Iran against laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz following media reports suggesting that Iran may either be preparing to do so or has already begun the process. Investors today are awaiting the inflation report, which is expected to show that core inflation rose only 0.2% last month, while headline inflation increased to about 0.25%. Yesterday’s trading session in Europe and Asia was more positive. Christine Lagarde stated that the European Central Bank (ECB) will ensure that a war involving Iran does not trigger the same inflation surge as the Russia–Ukraine war. This morning, Asian indices are mostly in positive territory, with only the Hong Kong market showing a slight decline. S&P 500 futures are up by 0.3%, while gold is trading slightly above $5,200 per ounce.
KASE Index. The correction in the KASE index paused after three consecutive sessions of decline. The index posted a modest gain of 0.3%, mainly supported by the rise in Kazatomprom shares. Most likely, the local market may enter a phase of local consolidation as selling pressure on global markets eases.
Index stocks. The largest gain yesterday was recorded in KazTransOil shares, which have risen more than 40% since December and reached our target level. We believe that buying the stock at current levels could be risky; however, new financial results and dividend announcements may trigger renewed investor interest. The 2025 financial report is expected before April 1, while the annual general meeting of shareholders is scheduled for May 28 (the dividend recommendation will be released earlier).
KZAP rose by 4.1% on the local market and by 8.3% on the LSE yesterday. As a result, by the close of yesterday’s session, local market shares were trading 2.2% cheaper. Despite this growth, no new technical signals have emerged. The nearest resistance level remains at $87.2; a confident breakout and consolidation above this level could open the path for continued long-term growth. At today’s market open, Kazakhtelecom shares are showing an unexpected increase on elevated trading volumes.
Currency. Yesterday, a strong bearish candle was observed on the USDKZT chart. On the forex market, the dollar fell even below the lows of 2025, which, interestingly, occurred on March 11. The session closed at 490 tenge, where trading continues today. In our view, with declining oil prices, the pressure on the dollar may ease.