Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 rose by 0.7%. Yesterday, the focus was on the Fed meeting — as expected, the regulator cut the rate by 25 bps for the third consecutive time, and Powell praised the resilience of the U.S. economy. In addition, the Fed announced it plans to start purchasing $40 billion in Treasury securities monthly (effectively QE) to reduce short-term financing costs. However, there were negative points — officials kept a forecast of only one rate cut in 2026, and the vote revealed disagreements among Fed members. Trump reacted negatively, stating the rate “could have been doubled.” Regarding the potential Warner Bros acquisition, Trump also said it should include the sale of CNN and that he would participate in the process. In Europe, indices closed neutral, likely because Powell’s speech came after the session closed. Traders price in more than a 50% chance of an ECB rate hike by the end of 2026, as Isabel Schnabel’s strict statements continue to have a negative impact. S&P 500 futures fell 0.85% in the morning due to disappointing Oracle cloud revenue, suggesting recent AI orders will be profitable longer than expected. In Asia, major indices show moderate declines in the morning. Oil is trading below $62.
Bonds. U.S. 10-year yields fell for the first time after four sessions of growth following Powell’s press conference.
KASE Index. KASE had a successful session, rising 1.1%, helping it continue recovery after November’s decline. Leading growth were shares of two banks mentioned in the previous review.
Index Stocks. BCC gained 3%, and Народный банк (People’s Bank) rose 2.8%. Yesterday we noted both banks were showing growth signals, which began to materialize. Technical analysis shows HSBK shares breaking above a descending trendline, indicating stronger upward movement. However, considering the strong growth waves BCC can show, its final yield may surpass Народный банк. On Nasdaq, Kaspi rose 2.5% for the first time after four sessions of decline, interrupting the local downward trend. The largest rebound was Kazatomprom — up 5.9%. Notably, the high volatility of the last two sessions in Kazatomprom was entirely its own “merit,” as sector uranium ETFs did not show such price swings. Overall, this growth did not add anything new but helped keep quotes above the $58.4 support level.
Currency. The dollar continues to rise against the tenge for the fourth consecutive session. However, growth rates are slowing, indicating reduced pressure from buyers. We expect the USD to gain another 2 tenge locally, but the 521 level may force the USDKZT pair to pause its rise.