Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. Yesterday, the S&P 500 opened lower, but traders managed to recover part of the losses in the second half of the session. The largest declines were seen in semiconductor stocks: Nvidia fell 5.5%, Broadcom 3.2%. Recall that the day before, Nvidia released its quarterly report, which exceeded expectations, but in the post-market, investors reacted lukewarmly, and apparently the company was unable to dispel concerns about AI prospects. On the other hand, financial sector stocks and software developers performed well. After the close, Dell released its AI server sales forecast, which exceeded expectations. In Europe, the CAC 40 and FTSE 100 indices performed best and are currently at historical highs. In the commodities market, oil showed high volatility, rising to $72.4 and falling to $69.2 during the session. This price range was triggered by Oman’s statement that Iran and the U.S. had made significant progress in Geneva negotiations. According to WSJ, Washington is requesting Tehran to dismantle three of its major nuclear facilities. Talks are expected to continue next week. In Asia, indices in China, Japan, and South Korea are down this morning. Futures on the S&P 500 are down 0.4% in early trading.
KASE Index. Yesterday, KASE rose for the sixth consecutive session. Prices confirmed a breakout from a local triangle pattern and are now testing historical highs. During the session, the index reached 7,787.5 points, but the close remained below the January 29 level. Considering some weakening in the U.S. market and the correction in Kazatomprom GDRs, resistance levels may cap the index’s growth today.
Index stocks. Six of the ten index stocks rose yesterday, with four gaining around or above 1%. The largest increase was in Halyk Bank, which hit historical highs and met our expectations. GDRs on the LSE also rose, but without new highs, as prices slightly corrected in the second half of the session. KazMunayGas continued its positive momentum, rising for the third consecutive session after breaking out from local consolidation. Kcell shares, which had shown little activity in the past six months, rose 1% and reached highs since July of last year, although still in a long-term sideways trend. The largest decline was in Kazatomprom GDRs, falling 5% following a similar rise in the previous session. Prices failed to break resistance around $87. Kaspi.kz fell another 1.8%, continuing its downward trend. The Q4 report publication date is set for March 2.
Currency. The U.S. dollar is pausing after breaking key resistance levels on the USDKZT chart. This morning, the pair is trading at 499 KZT.