Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. The S&P 500 jumped another 1.8%, this time confidently renewing its all-time high. The trigger was notable progress in talks between the U.S. and Iran on the Strait of Hormuz issue. Yesterday evening, reports emerged from Qatar about the preparation of a draft deal after Trump discussed with the Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani efforts to de-escalate tensions. In addition, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed hope for reaching an agreement to resume operations in the Strait of Hormuz. Axios reported that Washington, Tehran, and Oman are close to an agreement to resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and an announcement is scheduled for today. Diplomats familiar with the situation said Tehran is considering allowing European countries to carry out demining of the Strait of Hormuz. Additional support came from corporate earnings, in particular Palantir, whose shares rose 29.5%. After the close of the session, SpaceX reported strong financial results, however its shares still fell 7.5% in the post-market. AMD’s report did not meet expectations, and the company’s shares dropped 8.8%. Meanwhile, in June the number of job openings in the U.S. declined, but hiring picked up slightly, indicating relatively stable demand for labor heading into the summer. Jeff Schmid of the Kansas City Fed said that returning inflation to the Fed’s 2% target may require higher interest rates. This morning in Asia the picture is positive: the Nikkei 225 and the Kospi are up 3.7%. S&P 500 futures add 0.4%, extending the move toward new all-time highs. Oil is trading this morning at $79.3 per barrel for Brent after yesterday’s decline. Aramco is reported to be exploring options to expand its export capacity.
KASE Index. KASE continues to rise gradually. Yesterday the index gained 0.2%, finishing in the green for the sixth session in a row. Over this period, quotes have risen by about 2.5%, and today add another 0.15%.
Index stocks. Kaspi yesterday replaced BCC as the leader of the day’s gain. KSPI quotes jumped 2.4% and reached highs since June 4. The technical picture in the local market remains moderately positive, as the shares retain upside potential toward 44 300 tenge, while on Nasdaq the ADS have already begun testing the resistance level around $93.5. Note that in yesterday’s session the quotes were volatile, rising to $93.5 and falling to $90 during trading. Kazatomprom added 1.6% and today is up another 1–2.5%, which is a good signal of a potential trend reversal. Key resistance levels for the GDR, including the 50- and 100-day moving averages, extend up to $71.8. A similar dynamic, but already with a breakout of resistance levels, is shown by the People’s Bank GDR.
Currency. The USDKZT pair yesterday fell slightly below 472 tenge, and today declines to 470.4 tenge. In external markets, the ruble continues to weaken against the dollar.