External Background.
The S&P 500 showed minimal growth on Monday. Traders maintained a neutral stance ahead of the interest rate decision scheduled for Wednesday. The rate itself is not the main focus, as markets are confident it will remain unchanged. The real intrigue lies in Powell's speech, which could signal a potential rate cut in the coming months. According to market consensus, investors expect officials to signal movement in September, as risks are growing that the stable but moderate labor market may be at risk. In addition to the Fed, increased attention will be given to the earnings reports of major companies like Microsoft, META, Apple, and Amazon. In Europe, leading indices declined, showing no advanced attempts to break out of current consolidation. Even the technically most promising British FTSE 100 added only 0.1%. Asian markets also saw declines this morning after Friday's growth. On Wednesday, the Bank of Japan will present a detailed quantitative tightening plan after many years of large-scale easing. A rate hike is also likely. Commodities showed declines, with oil falling below $79 in the morning. Copper and uranium were also down, but gold prices jumped by 2.2% today.
Bonds.
Yields on U.S. 10-year Treasuries continued to decline and are now at levels seen on July 17-18. Emerging market corporate bonds showed slight growth.
KASE Index.
The KASE index fell by 0.2%, repeating the dynamics of Western markets. This decline slowed the momentum of Friday's growth, but we still expect a retest of historical highs in the near future. However, the market's further movement will depend on the strength of the trend and the market’s ability to overcome resistance levels.
Index Stocks.
The results of yesterday's trading were moderately negative. Most stocks closed with minor price changes, but two stocks lost more than 1%. The first was KazTransOil, which fell to 802 tenge. If we consider only session closing prices, this result is the lowest since July 2023, or one calendar year. A similar result was seen in Air Astana shares, which showed the biggest decline in the current wave of local growth that began on July 19. For GDRs, a new historical low was reached yesterday. So far, quotes are not showing technical signs of an end to the downward trend.
Currency.
USDKZT quotes remain below 476 tenge. This morning, the national currency is trading almost unchanged on Forex at 475 per dollar.