Our Comments and Expectations
External Environment. Yesterday’s session in the U.S. market was marked by a recovery of lost positions. The main growth was seen in technology sector stocks, which had significantly declined the day before. The Nasdaq jumped 2% after a 3% drop the previous day, while the S&P 500 gained 0.9%. Today, another test awaits the major players in artificial intelligence (AI): Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla will release their earnings reports. Additionally, the Federal Reserve is beginning its two-day meeting on interest rates. "Black Swan" author Nassim Taleb stated that Nvidia's recent plunge was just a precursor to future turmoil for AI stock investors, warning that subsequent pullbacks could be 2–3 times sharper. At the same time, data showed that orders for business equipment in the U.S. in December grew more than expected, while orders for durable goods unexpectedly declined. European stocks also posted gains yesterday, and this upward trend continues this morning. Commodities rebounded after several sessions of decline.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds edged slightly higher from early January lows. Corporate bonds showed a slight decline.
KASE Index. The KASE index closed yesterday with a 0.3% decline. Given that stock prices have now been falling for three consecutive sessions, we are witnessing a corrective wave rather than a sideways stagnation. If the current pace continues, the index could find support at the rising trendline near 5,660 points.
Index Stocks. The biggest loser yesterday was BCC, whose stock price fell 1.6%, dropping to 2,550 KZT during the session. As long as the price remains above 2,650 KZT, we cannot confirm a full-fledged correction in these shares. KazMunayGas (KMG) fell by 1%, mainly due to declining oil prices. Positive news from Tengiz has so far had little impact on KazMunayGas stock prices. Chevron announced that oil production at the Tengiz field will grow by 24.8% in 2025 compared to 2024 levels—rising from 27.8 million tons to 34.7 million tons.
Kazatomprom stock remained largely unchanged in the local market, despite the fact that uranium sector stocks experienced a sharp drop the day before. The URA and URNM uranium ETFs declined by 10–11% after Kazatomprom’s operational report, where the uranium producer announced plans to increase production by 18% and sales by 20% in 2025. While this is generally positive news for the company, uranium prices likely reacted negatively due to concerns about increased market supply. However, not all of Kazatomprom’s uranium is sold at market prices, meaning the actual impact of this event may not be fully reflected.
Besides Kazatomprom, Halyk Bank's GDRs (Global Depositary Receipts) also gained on the LSE, with prices hitting an all-time high of $21.2 per share during the session.
Currency. The USD/KZT pair closed slightly higher yesterday. The tax period will begin in mid-February, but its impact may be felt earlier—during the first ten days of the month.