Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. On Friday, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.3%. Most stocks in the index showed mixed movements, but the big underperformers were Nvidia and several other semiconductor manufacturers due to the drop in Texas Instruments' stock price. This occurred after the company issued a bleak earnings forecast for the current period due to weak demand and higher production costs. On the other hand, Broadcom (+1.84%), Google (+1.2%), and Meta (+1.74%) stocks rose. According to Zuckerberg, Meta plans to invest up to $65 billion in AI-related projects in 2025, including the construction of a new data center and increased hiring for related teams. Meanwhile, the published data from the University of Michigan index shows that consumer sentiment in the U.S. declined in January for the first time in six months. Survey participants expect prices to rise by 3.2% annually over the next five to ten years. Business activity is growing at its slowest pace in nine months, as shown by global S&P business activity indices. In Europe, indices ended their 7-8 session growth streaks. The biggest loss was recorded by the UK’s FTSE 100, amid news of job cuts in the UK at a pace last seen after the financial crisis. In Asia, the Hong Kong Hang Seng index rose noticeably in the morning (+1%). Starting tomorrow, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will be closed for the rest of the week, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange will be closed until February 3. Oil is trading at $76.9 per barrel of Brent in the morning.
Bonds. The yield on U.S. 10-year government bonds decreased on Friday to 4.62% amid a weakening dollar. Corporate bonds showed a slight increase.
KASE Index. The KASE index decreased by 0.5% on Friday. The decline in stocks was broad-based, which could indicate local market fatigue or a decrease in investor activity before the weekend. However, the index maintained its trajectory and remains in sideways consolidation.
Index Stocks. The decline in stocks was uniform, with no sharp movements or changes in trajectory. The largest drop was seen in Kcell (-1%), but this did not affect its dynamics in the stagnant sideways trend. The defensive KEGOC showed a neutral result. The local downtrend continues for Air Astana, although the broader trend remains sideways. The growth of BC K and Kazakhtelecom stocks has halted. We assume that the decline in KazMunayGas stocks will end around the 14,500 level. Kaspi.kz has not been able to develop a normal rebound, encountering local resistance at the 52,200 tenge level. On the LSE, the worst performers were the National Bank and Kaspi, although there were no significant changes. Air Astana on the LSE corrected to the GDR prices on AIX.
Currency. The breach of the 50-day moving average on the USDKZT chart was likely a result of increased dollar sales by the National Bank, as well as the general weakening of the dollar in global markets, which showed its most significant weekly decline since November 2023.