Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% yesterday, slightly better than the previous result. United Airlines, Procter reported well & Gamble and Verizon Communications, the unsuccessful report was shown by 3M Co. and Johnson & Johnson. On the premarket, Netflix grew by 8.6% after attracting 13.1 million customers in the last three months of 2023, which was the best quarter since the beginning of the pandemic. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the result was the successful suppression of password disclosure. In addition to the reporting season, the US election race attracts investors' attention. The focus is on the presidential primaries in New Hampshire, where former President Donald Trump won. In Europe, the indices were in a moderate minus, which nevertheless did not change the current technical picture. In Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng is growing after yesterday's news about a potential $278 billion aid package for the Chinese market. However, it is also reported that this plan is facing skepticism, as investors say that any recovery will be fleeting without fundamental economic growth. Goldman Sachs said there are signs of capitulation in Chinese stocks and they are still positive about the market. Crude oil inventories in the United States decreased by 6.67 million barrels last week, while gasoline supplies increased, API reports.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year US government bonds is retesting the 50-day moving average today. JPMorgan has reduced bullish positions on Treasury bonds to ease the market hype around the Fed's early and aggressive rate cuts. Sales of European bonds exceeded 293.7 billion euros, which was a record for January, as borrowers took advantage of investor appetite.
The KASE index. The KASE index fell by 1.1% yesterday, returning to the level of January 15. As in the case of the session before last, where there was an increase, we still do not see any clear signals that the current picture of local consolidation has been changed. Most likely, the correction was the result of a decrease in consumer activity after the earthquake in Almaty on the night of January 22-23.
Index shares. The decline took place in a number of securities, which indicates a wave of correction and indicates the thesis that the decline was due to recent non-market events. In addition, we note that the weakness of the GDR on the LSE in recent sessions has also put pressure on three important securities in the local market. To date, all three (HSBK, KSPI and KZAP) are more expensive on KASE than on LSE. The bias is especially noticeable at Kaspi, where the currency difference reaches 10%. Kazatomprom rose 0.6% on the LSE yesterday. It is worth noting that URA and URNM uranium ETFs increased by 2.7-3.1% yesterday. Uranium itself dropped slightly to $105.
Currency. Yesterday, the dollar fell to 444 tenge, but this morning it is growing to 445.8. We believe that in the area of 441-444 tenge, the dollar will have strong technical support.
Key market news
(=) KZAP: Kazatomprom National Nuclear Company JSC announced an increase in the company's rating ratings by Fitch Ratings, the outlook is Stable