Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. The S&P 500 rose 0.5% yesterday for the first time after three consecutive down sessions. Traders noted some calming in the market after recent negative triggers that had heightened inflation risks. Reporting companies returned to the spotlight: Dell shares jumped 15.8% after issuing positive guidance. Broadcom’s results disappointed investors, but the stock recovered in after-hours trading after an initial decline thanks to a forecast of a surge in AI chip sales over the next two years. Trump said strikes on Iran would likely be short-lived, confirming that the U.S. controls the Strait of Hormuz. According to a Fed survey, U.S. economic activity increased moderately over the past two months, with growth driven in part by demand from data centers. ADP data showed U.S. companies added 38k jobs in August, below expectations and the smallest gain since the start of the year. Next, on Friday, investors will be awaiting the Non farm payrolls report and employment data. The President of the New York Fed said there is evidence that inflation continues to slow as the impact of tariffs fades, while energy price increases have not yet spilled over into other services. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries was stable yesterday at 4.8%. This morning, Asian indices are trading around neutral levels. Oil is slightly lower and trading at $94.4 per barrel. S&P 500 index futures are unchanged.
KASE Index. Yesterday’s session was negative for KASE. Quotes retreated from levels close to all-time highs. Based on the current picture, the index may form a local channel and is now moving toward its lower boundary around 8000 points.
Index constituents. In the previous session, key shares of Halyk Bank, Kazatomprom, and Kaspi declined. All of these securities are also traded on the LSE and Nasdaq and at times may be more exposed to negative influence from Western markets. A negative element in market dynamics may be that the current pattern could evolve into a bearish rising channel or wedge, however, it is necessary to wait for the full formation of the pattern to draw such a conclusion. Arguing against this scenario is the fact that Kaspi and Halyk Bank quotes showed gains yesterday on Western exchanges. HSBK added 1.8%, which is not yet enough for a full reversal, but at least it allows the price to remain stable above the support level at $33.8. Kaspi, by contrast, rose confidently enough to claim a full retracement of the recent decline and may return to $108 and above. As for Kazatomprom, we do not expect the correction to deepen further, since around $71.5 the GDRs meet strong support in the form of the 100-day moving average, and slightly below, at $71, runs the 50-day average.
Currency. USDKZT is attempting to break through the 455 tenge level today. At the moment, quotes are trading at 454.5 tenge. To speak of a confirmed breakout, it is better to wait for the session to close, as the quotes may close above current levels.
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