Our Comments and Expectations
Global background. The S&P 500 gained 0.4% yesterday, continuing its recovery after the October 10 decline. The session, however, was volatile, with both intraday gains and pullbacks. The earnings season officially kicked off, with Morgan Stanley and Bank of America reporting solid results. Meanwhile, U.S.–China trade tensions remained elevated. In Europe, indices moved mixed: DAX fell 0.2%, while Stoxx 600 added 0.6%. This morning, S&P 500 futures are up another 0.2%, and the MSCI Asia Pacific index gained 1.1% in early trading.
Oil prices remain steady at around $62.4 per barrel, despite reports that India will halt purchases of Russian crude.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose to 4.05% yesterday, while corporate bonds also gained in price.
KASE Index. The KASE index closed neutral yesterday, staying within its sideways range. During the session, it rose up to +0.9%, but gains were not sustained. Trading volumes reached the highest level in the past six sessions.
Index stocks. Trading activity surged for Air Astana, reaching peak volumes since September 23. The stock initially supported the KASE’s advance before pulling back later in the session — rising to 820 tenge and closing at 801 tenge.
On the London Stock Exchange, Air Astana GDRs fell 3.4%, slipping below recently breached resistance levels.
BCC, Halyk Bank, Kaspi, and KazTransOil stocks also advanced during the day before correcting slightly. The latter recovered about half of its previous session losses. Trading volumes were notably high in BCC and Kazatomprom, while declining in Halyk Bank, KEGOC, and Kaspi.kz.
The best performer was Kcell, which broke above its descending trendline. Kazatomprom shares also rose on both exchanges, breaking out of consolidation and extending their rally, as reflected in the GDR dynamics.
Kaspi shares fell 1.2% locally after testing 44,000 tenge intraday. The company announced it will publish its Q3 and 9M results on November 10, slightly later than expected. On Nasdaq, Kaspi rose 0.7%.
Halyk Bank GDRs on LSE gained 1.3%, approaching a key resistance zone near historical highs. Notably, since July 2022, the chart shows a clear upward growth channel.
Currency. The U.S. dollar eased 0.1% against the tenge, trading near 537.8 this morning. The tenge’s strength may be supported by a rising ruble, which is gaining on hopes for a possible renewal of Russia–Ukraine peace talks.
It was reported that Steve Witkoff may take a mediating role in these discussions after tensions in the Middle East subside.