Our Commentary and Expectations
External background. Yesterday, the S&P 500 declined by 1.6%, while other major global indices rose, following the previous session's gains in the U.S. market. The session was quite volatile in terms of intraday price swings. The VIX fear index climbed again, reaching 52.32 points. Hopes for a swift end to heightened volatility were dashed after a White House spokesperson announced that the U.S. is moving forward with 104% tariffs on China. Meanwhile, Premier Li Qiang stated that China has enough policy tools to "fully offset" the negative impact of external shocks.
Market sentiment has shifted toward the possibility that the Federal Reserve may need to accelerate interest rate cuts to prevent a recession, despite persistent inflationary pressure. In Europe, indices rose by 2.5–2.7%, but futures are pointing downward: the Stoxx 600 is down 3%, and the DAX has dropped 3.2%. In Asia this morning, negative sentiment also prevails — the Nikkei 225 is down nearly 4%, and the Kospi has fallen 1.7%, while Chinese and Hong Kong indices remain largely neutral.
Oil is trading at $61.2 per barrel this morning — a four-year low due to the escalation of the global trade war, which threatens to weaken demand for energy. On the other hand, gold prices are rising again after a short-term pullback.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. government bonds rose for the second consecutive session. Weak demand at auctions is putting pressure on Treasuries. Corporate bonds declined by 0.5–0.7%.
KASE Index. The KASE Index rose by 0.4% yesterday. On Monday, prices rebounded during the session, helping the index move back above the key local support level of 5,480 points. Tuesday’s trading helped consolidate this progress, leaving the local market with a technical opportunity to begin a recovery.
Index stocks. Yesterday, Kaspi.kz shares were the top gainer in the local market — prices rose despite the company’s ADS on Nasdaq declining by 2.5%. As a result, the currency difference between local shares and ADS reached 9.2%. Nevertheless, there is a positive sign: the local price remains above the support level of 43,000 KZT, which is also the lowest point since February 2024.
In addition, BCC shares rose in the local market, allowing them to stay within a sideways trend. On the LSE, Halyk Bank GDRs gained 2.15%, rebounding from their 50-day moving average — a support level we highlighted yesterday. Kazatomprom and Air Astana GDRs closed the session flat, despite intra-session gains.
Currency. Yesterday, the National Bank made a statement, expressing its readiness to intervene in the FX market to prevent “destabilizing fluctuations” in the tenge exchange rate. The regulator also noted that the national currency is under pressure due to external conditions and increased demand for foreign currency from non-residents. Today, the tenge is trading at 519.8 per U.S. dollar.