Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. Yesterday’s daily candle of the S&P 500 reflected high volatility in the U.S. market. During the session, the index fell to 6,710 points, corresponding to a −1.7% decline. The situation improved after Trump stated that the U.S. would escort and insure tankers and other vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Stocks recovered about half of their losses, and the S&P 500 ultimately closed down 0.9%. The VIX volatility index retreated from 28.14 points, though it still remains at the highest level since November of last year. Meanwhile, gold faced selling pressure and dropped 3.5% amid the strengthening of the U.S. dollar globally. Media reports indicate that Israel launched a new wave of strikes on Tehran. Iran fired missiles toward Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman, while Doha stated that the targets were not limited to military facilities. Qatar and Iraq suspended production at major energy facilities. European indices posted deeper declines, similar to Asian markets, which continued correcting this morning. The KOSPI index suffered the largest losses, falling 12.2%. Nikkei 225 lost 4%, while declines in Hong Kong and mainland China were more moderate, ranging from 1.4% to 2.7%. S&P 500 futures are down 0.65%, while European Stoxx 600 and DAX remain neutral. Oil reached new highs since July 2024, with Brent trading at $83.6 per barrel.
KASE Index. Yesterday the KASE index rose another 0.7%, once again updating its all-time highs. Today, the decline of our securities on foreign markets in the UK and the U.S. may exert some pressure, although the market opened calmly.
Index stocks. The continued rise in oil prices is a positive factor for the local market. As of the morning of March 4, the situation appears more negative mainly for Asian markets, which are likely to be the first to face disruptions in oil supply. In essence, the current sell-off in global markets mostly reflects investor sentiment risks, while the real fundamental impact may only become visible if base interest rates start rising, which is not yet an obvious outcome. Meanwhile, U.S. and European index futures are showing only moderate declines today. Such conditions are relatively comfortable for the Kazakh market, except for the fact that all of our GDRs and ADSs dropped noticeably yesterday. Kaspi, which jumped 5.5% yesterday, will likely see a correction following its ADS, which declined 4.2%. Kazatomprom also declined, following uranium ETFs, which fell even more sharply — URNM and URA funds dropped by about 8%. At the same time, despite recent volatility, the GDRs remain in a sideways trend. Kaspi ADS fell 4.2%, but remained above the previously broken local downward trend line. Negative sentiment also affected Halyk Bank GDRs, which declined 3.4%.
Currency. This morning the FX market is also not showing significant excitement or elevated volatility. Yes, the previous two sessions showed notable intraday fluctuations, but closing levels overall remained relatively stable.