Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 rose at the opening of the session and in the last half hour before the closing of the exchanges. While the entire market was growing, Nvidia and Netflix shares were among the outsiders. Yesterday we mentioned that Morgan Stanley predicts the sale of shares worth $22 billion when rebalancing the portfolio of pension funds. Goldman Sachs also believes that these funds are likely to sell shares worth about $ 32 billion to balance their positions at the end of the quarter. The focus of investors' attention was the speech of Christopher Waller from the Fed after the close of trading. He said there was no need to rush to lower interest rates and he wanted to see "at least a couple of months of better inflation data" before cutting. In Europe, indices continue to show growth – the DAX rose by 1.15%, the Stoxx 600 added +0.13%. In the morning, the Asian markets have a mixed picture due to Waller's performance. The Japanese Nikkei 225 and the Korean Kospi are declining. Stocks in Hong Kong and mainland China are in the positive zone. Oil stopped declining after unsuccessfully testing the $87.5 resistance level.
Bonds. The yield of 10-year-olds decreased yesterday, but increased for 2-year-olds who reacted to Christopher Waller's speech. Corporate bonds, especially in emerging markets, showed good growth.
The KASE index. KASE has been growing for the fourth consecutive session. Yesterday, quotes rose by 0.6%, which is generally good, as the index begins to move above local consolidation levels.
Index shares. The catch of yesterday's index growth is that the main impact came from Kaspi shares, which rose 4% in the local market. Yes, the quotes rose well after they were able to move up from a wide side channel, however, we changed the local recommendation to “hold”, since the securities reached their target values and now the risks of their correction are increasing. KMG shares rose by 1%. The chart shows that the securities have approached the lower boundary of the ascending channel, and, given the positive report for 2023, a growth point may appear here, which will bring quotes out of the side channel. Kazatomprom's GDR decreased by 1.4% and is again trying to break down the trend line. Yesterday it became known that the Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan is actively working to increase metal exports to US energy companies. Further cooperation was discussed at a meeting with Senator Steve Daines on Tuesday. The People's Bank added 1%, however, we now see that the GDR has moved into a sideways trend under resistance levels. Given that the bank's AGM will be held on April 25, the securities do not look interesting in the local perspective and are likely to remain at these levels for a month.
Currency. In the morning, the dollar on the USDKZT chart weakens to the level of 448.5 tenge. Theoretically, the quotes of the US currency may drop by another 2 tenge in the near future and this will not have any effect on the technical picture of the currency pair. However, a move above 453 or below 445 would mark a change in the current trading dynamics.
Key market news
(=) AIRA: Air Astana JSC announced that it has reached an agreement on compensation with Pratt & Whitney and fleet renewal