Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. The S&P 500 rose a modest 0.3% and continues to consolidate locally. The spotlight was on the inflation report, which brought investors some relief. US core inflation in July came in restrained, which, together with Friday’s weak labor-market report, eased pressure on the Fed. The indicator rose 0.2% m/m, as expected. On a year-over-year basis, growth was 2.5%, matching the slowest pace since March 2021. Morgan Stanley believes that if the new inflation data to be released ahead of the Fed’s September meeting show no material changes, the regulator will leave interest rates unchanged. There was no progress in Iran-US relations: Trump said the US has “full” control over the Strait of Hormuz waterway. This morning in Asia, Korean and Japanese indices are rising. S&P 500 index futures are trading flat, and oil is at $88.8 per barrel. The IEA expects the supply deficit to widen to 1.8 million barrels per day in the current quarter.
KASE Index. The dull summer consolidation has ended, and the market is now moving higher активно virtually without pauses. However, it is worth noting that the rise in the KASE index in yesterday’s session was largely driven by Kaspi shares, which are experiencing a boom after the quarterly report was released and a dividend increase was announced. The rest of the stocks showed neutral dynamics yesterday.
Index stocks. Kaspi has been the hero of the past trading sessions. Quotes broke above key resistance levels, and the only thing that concerned us was the fact that they fluctuated sharply intraday and did not close at intraday highs. However, yesterday the opposite occurred: the ADS on Nasdaq posted solid gains and closed at $99.55, just 5 cents below the day’s high. But that’s not all: separate trading data show the shares added another 2.4% and reached $101.94 in the postmarket. We view the technical picture positively, especially over a broader horizon, which could provide a more long-term uptrend. However, we also note local risks: the shares are starting to move into overbought territory on the RSI, and likely closer to $105 the quotes may begin to stall, forming bearish divergence and a local pullback. We believe the market currently lacks just one Kaspi for устойчивого growth, since the risks described above could reduce the stability of the stock’s rise and stall the entire index. In this regard, Halyk Bank shares could provide support, as they are also currently in an uptrend. Yesterday the GDR quotes rose 1.9% and reached their highest levels since May 6. If one expects a retest of all-time highs, the quotes still have about 5.7% upside potential to $36. Solidcore rose another 1.2% yesterday and is approaching our fundamental valuation of $9.6 per share.
Currency. The dollar is trading at 465.7 tenge this morning. Thus, the national currency still cannot push the dollar below key support levels, and the battle for them continues.