Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. U.S. indices ended the last day of September and the quarter mixed: in the final minutes of trading the S&P 500 slipped into negative territory, down 0.25%, the Dow lost 0.9%, while the Nasdaq added 0.2%. In the morning, the market was supported by a softer-than-expected core PCE index and strong GDP data, but the ongoing rise in Treasury yields wiped out that effect. For September overall, the S&P 500 fell 0.5%, the Dow lost more than 4%, while the Nasdaq rose nearly 2%. Oil gained 1%: the expired November Brent contract closed around $103.5, and Brent added more than 14% for the month. Prices were supported by Trump, who denied reports that he was ready to ease sanctions on Iran, although Qatar continues to mediate between the parties. In Europe, the Stoxx 600, having given back its morning gains, fell 0.5%. Inflation in a number of the eurozone’s largest economies accelerated in September more than forecasts, reinforcing expectations of an ECB rate hike. For the month, the index closed negative for the first time in six months. This morning Asian markets are rising sharply: the Nikkei is up more than 2% on chipmakers, the Kospi is gaining 1.1%, and mainland China markets are closed for a week for holidays. U.S. index futures are up 0.5-0.8%.
KASE Index. KASE closed Wednesday with a slight gain of 0.1%, largely thanks to Air Astana, Bank CenterCredit, and KazTransOil shares. The index is still holding above local trend support, but further upside is in question amid yesterday’s decline in depository receipts abroad.
Index stocks. The strongest gain yesterday (+2.7%) was posted by KazTransOil shares, which returned above 1300 tenge and can now continue moving toward our target of 1370 tenge. Bank CenterCredit shares also showed positive momentum, rising 1.3% after two weeks of calm. However, the stock has approached a horizontal resistance level that it previously failed to break several times. Air Astana had an excellent session yesterday, with the stock up 1% and the GDR up 3.3%. At one point the shares were up 2.4% and broke through the local downtrend, but then pulled back. For a solid reversal, the price needs to move above 675 tenge. Other receipts on foreign markets showed a notable decline. Kazatomprom GDRs fell 3.8%, slipping slightly below the trendline. At the same time, uranium stocks declined by only 0.5%. It is possible that this drop in the GDR will be quickly bought back. However, pressure on the shares should be expected, as the price gap has already reached 4.6%. A decline in Kaspi shares should also be expected, as its ADS fell 1.8% and the premium of the shares to the ADS has already reached 3.6%. AltynGold reported results for the first half of 2026 and, as expected, showed strong revenue growth amid higher gold prices.
Currency. USDKZT rose by 1.34 tenge yesterday, to 440.24. The rate bounced off the support level and at one point even climbed to 442.5. Still, for the pair to continue rising it needs to move above 444 tenge and break the descending trend at 452.