Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 rose for the fourth consecutive session after testing the 50-day moving average, and once again (for the 50th time this year) reached historical highs. However, on Friday, there was a noticeable weakening of momentum and a decline in volumes to average levels. On the index map, almost all sectors showed growth, except for the technology sector and large-cap companies. In contrast, the Russell 2000 small-cap companies index (+0.74%) became the leader of growth among the largest U.S. benchmarks on Friday. Neil Kashkari from the Fed stated that the U.S. economy is strong, but inflation is not fully under control. According to the University of Michigan, U.S. consumer sentiment rose to 73 points in November, a seven-month high, and household expectations for future prospects reached their highest level in the past three years. Responding positively to Trump's victory, Bitcoin surpassed $80,000. In Europe, major indices fell by 0.65% to 1.2%. Robert Holzmann from the ECB said that a rate cut in December is possible, but not guaranteed. In Asia this morning, the Hong Kong Hang Seng index is down by 1.8%. It is reported that China's debt exchange program seems insufficient for investors. Additionally, economic data in mainland China remains deflationary: China's consumer price index slowed to 0.3% year-over-year, lower than expectations, and factory gate prices dropped by 2.9%, indicating that recent stimulus efforts have not yet broken the grip of deflation. UBS lowered its forecast for China’s GDP growth in 2025 to 4% from 4.5% after Trump's victory. Oil and copper prices decreased; Brent is trading slightly below $74 per barrel.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. bonds is showing a local reversal. Bloomberg reports that asset managers are now betting on high-yield bonds from emerging markets (EM). It is also noted that India, Turkey, and Indonesia could benefit from Trump’s policies.
KASE Index. The KASE index closed at 5325.56 points on Friday, bringing it closer to historical highs (based on session closings), which were set at 5330.22 points on August 26.
Index Stocks. Overall, the market maintained a moderately positive sentiment, as the number of rising stocks exceeded the number of declining ones. On the other hand, the slowing growth momentum in the U.S. could impact the local market, which is beginning to test the resistance of historical highs. Among the index stocks, excellent results are shown by Halyk Bank, which has reached historical highs. This takes into account the stock split carried out in December 2012 at a ratio of 1 to 10. Late last week, it became known that on December 9, the bank will hold an EGM, where the issue of a second dividend distribution this year will be considered. The recommended amount per share is 9.57 tenge, with the record date being December 10 at 00:00.
Currency. The USDKZT exchange rate has been held at the 492.2 level for the fourth consecutive session.