Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 has risen by 1% in the last two trading sessions, once again approaching its historical highs. At the same time, the bulk of this growth occurred on Friday, while Thursday remained neutral. According to the revised data, the US economy grew by 3% YoY in the second quarter, compared to the previously reported 2.8% and 1.4% in the first quarter. The new data reflected an increase in consumer spending, which offset weaker activity in other categories. With inflation declining, this is a pretty good sign. By the way, in neighboring Canada, GDP also showed growth, in this case by 2.1%, which was higher than market expectations. Further on Friday, positive data on the base PCE, also known as the "Fed's preferred indicator", was released. It rose 0.2% in July, which was less than expected, and strengthened support for the widely expected Fed rate cut in September. Compared to last year, the growth was 2.6%. Consumer spending adjusted for inflation increased by 0.4%. In Europe, index growth was also recorded – the Stoxx 600 rose by 0.9% and managed to briefly reach historical highs on Friday, but then rolled back. The German DAX had a similar situation, but in this case the quotes were able to stay at new historical heights. It is reported that inflation in the eurozone in August fell to the lowest level since mid-2021, which strengthened the arguments in favor of another ECB rate cut. The CPI increased by 2.2% compared to last year, which is significantly lower than July's 2.6%. Core inflation has also decreased. This morning, we see a mixed picture in the Asian markets, Japanese and Korean indices show a slight increase, and Chinese ones are declining.
Bonds. The yield of 10-year US bonds showed local growth and rose to the level of 3.9%.
The KASE index. The last working session turned out to be negative for the index. The quotes lost 0.2%, showing 3 consecutive sessions of decline. These losses pushed the index back into local consolidation, and offset recent technical hints of an upward breakout.
Index shares. In the local market, most of the securities turned out to be in a slight disadvantage. The largest growth was for Kaztransoil, however, it only played back the decline on August 26-27 and in the overall picture remains in a sideways trend. ADS Kaspi has had an interesting dynamic over the past 2 sessions. On Thursday, August 29, the quotes rose by 5.4%, recovering from the fall of the previous day (by 3.6%). Further on Friday, the securities rose by another 1.25%, which allowed them to finally break through their 50-day moving average, which has been putting pressure on quotes since August 15. This factor increases the attractiveness of local investment with a growth potential of up to 7%.
Currency. The dollar has been growing since morning to the level of 482.8 tenge, which means that it continues to consolidate at heights above the 480 level. We view this more as a negative sign, as consolidation may facilitate further dollar growth.The National Bank announced in the morning that in September net sales of foreign currency will amount to $680-700 million.