Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. The S&P 500 closed down 0.4% yesterday. The technology sector, which had previously shown growth, declined across most stocks this time. The Nasdaq 100 fell by 0.9%, marking the largest drop among the three major indices. Negative sentiment was driven by news that OpenAI failed to meet its targets for user growth and sales, raising concerns about its ability to sustain investments in AI infrastructure. Sam Altman stated that its consumer and enterprise business is “operating at full capacity.” Against this backdrop, investors are approaching earnings reports from Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta Platforms today, as well as Apple tomorrow, with caution. Nevertheless, according to Bloomberg, sector earnings are expected to grow by 41% in Q1. Meanwhile, Donald Trump stated that Iran had asked the US to lift the naval blockade of a waterway during negotiations to end the two-month conflict. According to CNN, Pakistani mediators expect Tehran to present a revised proposal in the coming days. Today, markets await the interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve System, as well as comments from Jerome Powell. S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% this morning. In Asia, the CSI 300 and Hang Seng are showing solid gains, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 is declining. Brent crude continues to rise, trading at $110.7 per barrel. The UAE announced it will leave OPEC next month, which is seen as a serious blow to the organization.
KASE Index. KASE failed to hold above previously broken levels after reaching new highs and returned to a sideways trend range. Quotes declined from 7,970 to 7,796 points and continue to fall today. The main pressure yesterday came from shares of Halyk Bank due to the dividend record date.
Index stocks. HSBK fell 5% yesterday. This is a seasonal negative factor that previously triggered correction waves in the local market, though its impact has weakened in recent years. We believe the correction in Halyk Bank shares does not change the overall picture. However, declines in Kaspi.kz and Kazatomprom may be more significant, as they had previously shown strong growth. Kaspi dropped 3.2% on Nasdaq, forming a “flag” pattern — not critical yet, but a drop below $83.5 would significantly worsen the technical outlook. Kazatomprom’s performance is currently similar to the KASE index — the entire uranium sector declined yesterday, and its GDRs returned to a wide sideways range. No sharp drop is seen at the LSE open; on the contrary, quotes are up 2.4%, offsetting the negative.
Currency. The dollar briefly reached our local target of 455 tenge yesterday. Today, USDKZT is trading at yesterday’s closing level.