Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 rose by 0.3% yesterday and managed to update historical highs despite the government shutdown. In the short term, this poses the risk that Friday’s labor market report will be delayed, leaving investors to rely on yesterday’s ADP and JOLTS reports as well as today’s jobless claims. In Europe, indices showed solid growth of 1–1.2%. In Asia this morning, we are seeing strong and widespread gains. It is reported that stocks rallied after OpenAI’s agreement with South Korean chipmakers boosted enthusiasm around artificial intelligence. The Kospi surged by 2.7%.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries declined yesterday after the ADP report showed that U.S. companies unexpectedly cut jobs in September. This aligned with other data from the past month indicating a slowdown in the labor market. The JOLTS report also signaled weaker demand for labor.
KASE index. KASE had a successful session yesterday, rising by 0.9%, which is a clear signal of continued growth. Prices closed above all previous levels, setting new historical highs. The key now is to consolidate at these levels, since a quick pullback could be seen as a false breakout, leaving the overall picture largely unchanged. At the market open today, we are observing restrained dynamics and a minor pullback of 0.1%.
Index stocks. Three stocks gained more than 1% yesterday. The strongest growth came from Kazatomprom, which delivered better-than-expected results with a 3.5% increase. The positive impact on prices was likely driven by the weakening of the tenge and news that the company is considering a new listing to increase its capitalization. However, on the LSE, sellers capped the progress of GDRs, pulling prices back to their original levels after a rise to $54.2. As noted yesterday, this could signal a potential slowdown in growth on KASE. The second-best performer was Halyk Bank, which is making logical attempts to recover after a dividend-related decline. AIRA shares rose by 1.2%, reaching an important medium-term level of 835 tenge. A breakout above this mark could define the course of a larger and longer-term recovery. A technically negative picture is seen in Kaspi shares on Nasdaq. However, prices have reached the support level at $79.6 per ADS. At today’s opening, Air Astana shares rose to 833 tenge, BCC added nearly 1%, while Kaspi declined by 0.7%. From the economic side, it is worth noting inflation came in higher than the National Bank had expected — 12.9% in August.
Currency. The dollar faced resistance at 550 tenge and retreated to 546.7 tenge. Against this backdrop, the DXY dollar index also moved lower. Yesterday, the National Bank announced plans to sell $600–700 million from its National Wealth Fund in October.