Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The U.S. market was closed yesterday, but this morning, futures are up by 1%. European indices rose by 1–1.7% after Trump postponed the implementation of 50% tariffs until July 9. Both the Stoxx 600 and DAX recovered their positions but were unable to reach new highs overall. On today’s futures chart, both indices are showing neutral behavior. Tomorrow, U.S. market investors will be watching Nvidia's earnings report. On Friday, the U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, excluding food and energy, is expected to be released. This morning, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index is showing a modest recovery after yesterday’s decline, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 is marking its second consecutive day of gains. Oil has dropped to $64.2, and both gold and copper are also declining.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is decreasing to 4.46% this morning. The 2-year Treasuries, which are more sensitive to Fed policy, are consolidating around 3.99%.
KASE Index. Yesterday’s trading session was positive for the KASE index — prices rose by 1.1%. However, in the longer term, this growth has limited impact, as the market is merely recovering from the recent decline in Kazakhtelecom shares.
Index Stocks. Yesterday’s session was volatile for individual stocks. Kazatomprom rose by 4.8% along with the market, but the outlook for its shares on the LSE, as well as the broader sector in U.S. trading, remained unclear due to market holidays. Uranium prices rebounded to $71.55 per pound, the highest since January. KEGOC shares fell due to the dividend record date, while KazTransOil rose during the final stages of its dividend rally. The record date is scheduled for the night of June 3. This morning, BCC shares are confidently rising and setting new all-time highs. Notably, Kazakhtelecom shares are rising for the second session in a row (including today). The total decline previously amounted to 41%, which is close to our expectations. For now, we do not see significant potential for a rebound or bargain buying in these shares.
Currency. The USDKZT exchange rate is trading around 511 tenge this morning, indicating continued consolidation. On the local chart, resistance is at 512 tenge, which coincides with the 50-day moving average. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is rising today after two sessions of decline. The USDRUB is trading below the 80 mark.