Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. The S&P 500 fell by 0.5% after a 0.2% decline on Friday. The main pressure on the market is coming from oil, which reached $91 per barrel. Trump said he is not interested in extending the expiring agreement with Iran, while fighting has flared up again in Lebanon. Growing investor anxiety about the potential impact of expensive oil on inflation is also reflected in the rise of the US 10-year Treasury yield to 4.72%. The yield on US 30-year bonds climbed to 5.32%—a level last seen in June 2007. This morning in Asia, the Kospi and Nikkei 225 indices are down. S&P 500 futures are losing 0.4%.
KASE Index. KASE is stalling for the second session in a row. Yesterday the index closed flat, but the pattern was similar to Friday’s: quotes rose to 8,100 points and then declined. The laggard of the previous session was KEGOC shares, which rarely show such noticeable price deviations unless the trigger is the record date for dividend payments.
Index stocks. KEGOC fell 2.2%, which is uncharacteristic for these stable stocks. Most likely, this was investors’ reaction to Friday’s power outage in southern Kazakhstan, despite the company stating that the disruption was due to a power surge from the Unified Power System of Central Asia. At the same time, selling in the stock was quite active: volumes jumped to KZT 557 million, a yearly high, and the quotes themselves during the session dropped to their lowest levels since February 2024, implying a decline of almost 7%. Halyk Bank shares on the local market rose 0.9%, continuing their upward move. Since the beginning of July, the quotes have gained just over 13%. Today the bank publishes quarterly results. On the LSE, Air Astana shares unexpectedly posted the largest jump. Today we released an updated valuation for these securities following the Q2 report. The results continue to show the same picture: engine issues are pressuring margins, albeit less than before, while passenger traffic both in the country and across the group of companies (Air Astana + FlyArystan) is showing weaker dynamics. An additional negative factor remains high fuel prices abroad, which, in the absence of hedging, could put even more pressure on margins. Other GDRs on the LSE closed with a slight gain. We also note the continuing rise in uranium prices, which are now at their highest since February.
Currency. The tenge, on a wave of gains, is rapidly moving toward April highs. In the previous review, we noted some correlation between USDKZT quotes and the DXY index. However, the dollar is now weakening against the tenge faster than is reflected by DXY dynamics. The ruble also continues to decline both against the tenge and against the US dollar.
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