Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 was closed on Friday and opened lower on Monday. Negative news once again came from Trump: the U.S. president stated that any country supporting the “anti-American” BRICS policy would face an additional 10% tariff. After the market closed, Trump released letters sent to 12–15 countries, threatening higher tariff rates for key trade partners, including Japan and South Korea, with a deadline of no later than August 1. Scott Bessent hinted that countries failing to reach agreements by Wednesday might receive a three-week extension to continue negotiations. Meanwhile, the European Union announced that it is nearing a trade agreement with the U.S. As equity markets declined, bond yields rose, and the dollar strengthened.
Corporate News. Tesla shares dropped 7.3% after Elon Musk announced the formation of a new “America Party,” which Trump mocked as laughable. European indices traded mixed over the two sessions. On Monday, the Stoxx 600 and DAX posted gains, possibly due to encouraging news about EU-U.S. trade talks. However, tensions with China increased as Beijing stated it would exclude EU companies from public procurement of certain medical devices. German industrial production unexpectedly rose by 1.2% in May. Oil prices fell on Monday but later recovered. OPEC+ unexpectedly announced a production increase of 548,000 barrels per day for the next month — exceeding expectations. This decision is expected to result in a surplus by the end of the year, putting pressure on prices for producers. Goldman Sachs suggested that the cartel might raise production further in September.
Bonds. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have risen for the fourth session in a row. Corporate bonds are declining.
KASE Index. The KASE index continued its upward streak — Friday marked the sixth consecutive session of gains. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) rose to 75.81 points and could turn into a bearish divergence if the index declines.
Index Stocks. The biggest gain came from Halyk Bank shares — the stock broke out upward from a triangle pattern. In contrast, Kaspi ADS once again failed to break above the descending trend line and declined on Nasdaq. Bank CenterCredit shares continued to rise, highlighting a mixed picture within the banking sector. All other index constituents rose (except KMG), reflecting moderately positive investor sentiment.
Currency. The dollar on KASE closed unchanged on Friday. A triangle pattern continues to form on the USDKZT chart. A possible trigger for U.S. dollar strength in today’s session could be yesterday’s rise in the DXY index.