Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. On Monday, the S&P 500 rose 2.3%, the Nasdaq by 2.7%, and the Dow Jones by 2.2%. The U.S. market continued to recover after last week’s sell-off. Support came from a sharp decline in oil prices, which eased inflation concerns. European markets also closed higher: the Stoxx 600 gained 1.3%, the DAX 1.7%, and the FTSE 100 1.0%. Brent crude fell 5.8% to $92.57 per barrel. The main catalyst was Trump’s statement that new strikes on Iran were unlikely provided negotiations make progress. Additional pressure came from signs of a weakening physical market: according to Reuters, OPEC production increased in October, and Dated Brent traded at a discount to the nearest futures. The 10-year UST yield held around 4.86%, and the dollar index was virtually unchanged. Gold rose 1.0% to $4 114.5 per ounce. On Tuesday morning, the rally in Asia continued: the Nikkei was up about 3.4%, and South Korea’s KOSPI surged 4.7%. Brent slipped to roughly $91.6. Today, the focus is on U.S. October inflation: after a strong jobs report, the market is looking for new signals on the Fed’s rate path.
KASE Index. The KASE Index rose 0.7% and effectively moved back above the lower boundary of the local upward channel, which it broke below on Friday. Despite the technical positive, we would like to see prices rise above 7,920 points to speak more confidently about KASE returning to an uptrend rather than shifting into a sideways move. We note a broad-based advance: seven index constituents were in the green, while only Kazakhtelecom was in the red. Such dynamics usually point to an overall improvement in market sentiment, which coincided with a broad recovery in global indices.
Index stocks. Kaspi.kz rose 0.2% to 41 700 tenge; however, its ADS fell 2.4% to $89.47. In our view, the company reported neutrally for the third quarter. Interest expenses are, as expected, continuing to grow faster than interest income, although their growth rate slowed slightly compared with the second quarter. Quarterly net profit increased by only 1.1% y/y, in line with our expectations. As for management guidance, the GMV growth forecast in the Marketplace segment was cut from 20% to 12%. At the same time, the other forecasts were reaffirmed at the same level, and the actual nine-month results broadly match the targets, indicating a high likelihood of meeting them by year-end 2026. We note that the strengthening of the tenge against other currencies, including the dollar and the Turkish lira, led to a decline in GMV in the Marketplace segment, as well as a 35% y/y drop in revenues of the Turkish subsidiary marketplace Hepsiburada. The company expects that lower deposit rates will slow the growth of interest expenses as early as Q4, with a more noticeable effect in 2027. Kazatomprom rose 2.3% on the local market, while its GDRs on the LSE jumped 3.9%. From a technical standpoint, this is a positive development, as the quotes are bouncing off the support level around $59.6 for the second time, which may indicate the formation of a bullish “double bottom” pattern. KazTransOil rose 1.0% to 1 383.60 tenge. The session featured elevated trading activity: by midday, turnover had already reached 287.6 million tenge. At that point, the price remained virtually unchanged at around 1 369.90 tenge, and the rise formed later. On AIX, Solidcore shares fell 4.7% to $12.08 despite the rise in gold. The precious metal itself remains in comfortable conditions—after breaking above the downward trend line, prices continue to recover and will soon begin testing the 50-day moving average. No confirmed separate news trigger for the decline in the shares was found.
Currency. USDKZT posted a rise yesterday for the first time after three sessions of dollar declines. Today the tenge is strengthening again, reaching 447.65 tenge.
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