Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 closed up 0.2%, with a weekly gain of almost 4%, which was the best result this year. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 67.8 in August, exceeding expectations of 66.9. Goldman economists reduced the risk of a recession in the United States from 25% to 20%, reassured by recent retail sales and employment data, and said that the risk could fall even further if August employment figures are "good enough." Ostan Goolsbee said there are concerns that unemployment will continue to rise. This week, investors' attention will be focused on the annual Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, which will be held from August 22 to 24. Jerome Powell's speech is expected on Friday, August 23rd. Among swaptraders, the size of the expected mitigation of the PREP continues to decrease – 93 basis points by the end of the year instead of 150 at the beginning of this month. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose 0.3% and hit its 50-day moving average, while the DAX rose 0.8% and broke through a similar resistance level. Retail sales in the UK rebounded in July as summer discounts and the European Football Championship led to higher costs, but still turned out to be slightly worse than expected. The projected inflation for the next 12 months in Turkey decreased to 28.71% compared to 30.02% in July. In the Asian markets, the picture is mixed in the morning – Nikkei 225 and Kospi are down by 1.2-1.8%, when both the Chinese mainland market and Hong Kong show moderate growth. S&P 500 futures are neutral. Oil is currently trading at $79.4 per barrel of Brent. Gold is at historic highs with a price of $2,540 per ounce.
Bonds. The US 10-year yield is consolidating and is now around 3.9%. Corporate bonds showed an increase on Friday.
The KASE index. The KASE index increased by another 0.3%, which corresponds to the previous result. The market continues to consolidate at new historical heights. Moreover, if we take into account that KASE is most often inclined to show slow but steady growth (in long series) during its rally, then the current picture looks promising.
Index shares. Kazmunaigas showed the largest growth among the shares of the index. The securities, like the index, are now at their historical highs and have maintained a fairly stable growing trend since the beginning of trading. Kazakhtelecom dropped for the first time after four consecutive growth sessions. Quotes have stalled on the way to retest recent highs at around 40,000 tenge. Otherwise, the securities on the local market did not show remarkable dynamics. There is also a large amount of paper closed neutrally between US and the ADVERTISEMENT. The most important thing that Air Astana had was that the bags were designed later than last year.
Currency. On the USDKZT chart, due to changes, this amount is 478.7 tenge.