Our comments and expectations
External Background. The US market continued its active recovery yesterday. The S&P 500 rose by 1.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq jumped by 2.34%. The biggest gains came from semiconductor manufacturers, with Nvidia increasing by 4%. The focus was on favorable reports regarding sales and the labor market. Retail sales data for July showed a 1% increase compared to June, marking the fastest growth since January 2023, while market expectations were significantly lower at 0.4%. For the week ending August 10, initial jobless claims totaled 227,000, down from 234,000 the previous week and below the forecast of 235,000. This latest batch of economic news indicated that inflation is declining without negatively impacting retail sales, along with solid labor market data, alleviating fears of a hard landing for the US economy. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that the time is approaching to consider lowering interest rates. In Europe, indices also showed good growth—Stoxx 600 increased by 1.15%, and DAX rose by 1.66%. In Asia, the morning opened with robust growth, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 rising by 3.6%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng by 2.1%, and Korea’s Kospi by 2%. The head of the Chinese central bank promised to take additional measures to support the recovery of the country’s economy, but warned that “radical” measures would not be implemented. Oil is trading just above $80 per barrel for Brent. Commodity traders are currently focused on whether Iran will retaliate against Israel for the killing of a senior Hamas leader on its territory, which poses a regional political risk affecting oil prices.
Bonds. Investors sold US government bonds yesterday, resulting in a rise in the yield on 10-year bonds to 3.91%. Corporate bonds remained neutral.
KASE Index. The KASE Index showed a slight increase of 0.3% yesterday. However, this is a step toward solidifying at new heights, which is positive for the local market. External markets have shown growth yesterday and this morning, which may also impact the KASE.
Index Stocks. The biggest gain yesterday was recorded by Kazakhtelecom, which rose by 2.4%. On the chart, we did not see a breakthrough of any resistance level, but the quotes have noticeably approached the highs of July 10. The most notable dynamics were seen in the GDRs of the People's Bank, which jumped by 3.6% on the LSE. These stocks have around 2% growth potential to the May highs, which can be considered a resistance level ($19.15). One of the leaders in previous days, Kcell, performed neutrally. Kaspi could not break through the 50-day moving average on the chart of its ADS, despite the positive sentiment in the US market.
Currency. The dollar is trading this morning below 479 tenge without significant changes. The ruble has been recovering against the dollar for the fourth consecutive session.