Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 declined by 1.1% again. Trading volumes remain relatively low, but higher than the previous three trading sessions. At the moment, the index is slightly below its 50-day moving average, a situation that has only been observed on December 18–19, September 6–10, and early August over the past six months. In two cases, the index recovered quickly, but in August, after the shock from labor market data, the S&P 500 took exactly two weeks to recover. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index unexpectedly decreased, while expected home sales in the U.S. (Pending Home Sales) increased for the fourth consecutive month in November, reaching the highest level since the beginning of 2023. NYSE and Nasdaq announced they would be closed on January 9 due to mourning for the 39th U.S. President Jimmy Carter, who passed away at the age of 100. In Europe, major indices fell by 0.4–0.5%. Today the region is off due to the New Year celebrations. The LSE has a shortened session planned. Among major Asian indices, only Hong Kong's Hang Seng and China's CSI 300 are trading today, also with shortened sessions — both showing moderate declines. The services sector in China is growing at its fastest pace in nine months, while the manufacturing sector has grown for the third consecutive month, signaling improved domestic demand due to stimulus measures. The official non-manufacturing PMI in China rose to 52.2 in December, well above expectations, while the manufacturing PMI stood at 50.1. Oil is trading at $74.6 this morning, breaking the triangle formed over the past two months to the upside.
Bonds. The yield on U.S. 10-year government bonds retreated from its 7-month highs.
KASE Index. The KASE index closed moderately positively yesterday. Most stocks finished trading in a near-neutral zone, while the two most volatile stocks were Halyk Bank and Kcell, which moved in opposite directions.
Index Stocks. Kcell was the biggest decliner yesterday, being the only stock to show negative performance. The stock remains in a sideways trend, but at the lower boundary of this channel. Halyk Bank, on the other hand, returned to the 251 tenge mark, just 1 tenge below its historical high reached on December 5. Remember, in December 2012, the bank's shares underwent a 1-for-35 split, so these current levels can be considered record highs in history. All other stocks in the index showed slight gains yesterday, indicating a calm pre-New Year session. We didn't observe any reaction to Friday's decline in the S&P 500, but since the main U.S. index dropped again, we will watch today to see if there is any correlation. It's worth noting that both GDRs and ADS closed in the red yesterday.
Currency. There are no surprises in the currency market today. USDKZT is facing resistance at the 525 tenge level. The ruble weakened to 110 per dollar yesterday but is strengthening today by 3.6%, reaching 106.5.