Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. Yesterday, the S&P 500 rose by 0.4%, marking its third consecutive session of growth. Initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased to 219,000 for the latest reporting week, exceeding forecasts and the previous week's figure of 208,000. In post-market trading, Amazon shares fell by 4% after the company’s quarterly earnings and sales forecasts failed to meet expectations. Today, the market will focus on the monthly labor market report. Employers in the U.S. are expected to have added 175,000 jobs in January, though Bloomberg Economics predicts a higher increase of 215,000. Dallas Fed representative Lorie Logan noted that Fed rates may be close to a neutral level. Meanwhile, Fed official Austan Goolsbee stated that uncertainty in fiscal policy could slow the rate-cutting process but still expects some reductions over the next 18 months. In Europe, stock prices showed strong growth, with the Stoxx 600 once again reaching record highs. French stocks recovered from the drop triggered by Emmanuel Macron’s announcement of early parliamentary elections. In the Asian markets this morning, Chinese tech stocks are rising, driven by DeepSeek’s success. Deutsche Bank pointed out that the Chinese market is undervalued by investors and expects a "sharp turnaround" in the medium term. Oil is trading at $74.7 per barrel. Citi predicts that gold prices could reach a record $3,000 per ounce within the next three months.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. government bonds edged higher after Wednesday’s decline. Corporate bonds remained neutral.
KASE Index. The KASE index continued its decline yesterday after a brief pause. Weakness persists in the market, driven by a pullback of previous growth leaders and corporate events affecting certain stocks.
Index Stocks. Yesterday’s session was notable for increased trading volumes, reaching approximately 7 billion tenge. Typically, this is driven by a sharp surge in one stock, but yesterday, higher volumes were observed across four stocks: Kazatomprom, Kaspi, KMG, and KEGOC. However, there was no significant volatility in these stocks, as the largest price fluctuation was in KMG, which rose by 1.4%. It is worth noting that KMGZ shares have paused their decline over the past three sessions and are trying to find more stable levels after a prolonged drop. Unlike them, BCC shares continued their downward trend, having retreated by 10.3% from the January 20 level. On the LSE, Halyk Bank shares rebounded from their 50-day moving average. Technically, Kazatomprom GDRs and Kaspi ADS stocks look promising. AIRA shares continued to decline, likely due to a lack of support from the share buyback program.
Currency. The tenge has been strengthening for the fourth consecutive session ahead of the tax period. Today, USDKZT is breaking below a long-term trend line, reaching its lowest level since December 11.