Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 lost a minimum 0.2% after hitting historic highs on Thursday. Within the day, the index quotes showed a sweeping movement against the background of the expiration of options for 5.1 trillion USD, in addition, trading volumes reached their highest since January 2021. Among the individual securities, FedEx shares fell by 15% after the issuer failed to meet profit expectations, as well as Intel's stock price rose by 3.31% against the background of Qualcomm's takeover offer. Bank of America declined by 1.5% after the news of the sale of shares worth USD 3 billion by Warren Buffett's company. This week, investors are expecting data on PMI, GDP and the Fed's preferred PCE inflation indicator. In Europe, the quotes of the leading indices declined and lost 1.2-1.5%. UK retail sales beat expectations in August, but consumer confidence fell in September the most since 2022. In the morning, a moderately positive mood prevails in Asian markets, with the Japanese Nikkei 225 growing the most (1.5%). Oil today reaches the $75 mark, thereby showing an increase of 7.6% since reaching a local low of $69.7. Gold has updated its historical maximum, as Goldman Sachs previously predicted in the event of a rate cut of half a percent.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. government bonds rose slightly to 3.77%. Michael Hartnett of Bank of America believes that optimism in stock markets after the Fed's decision increases the risk of a bubble, making bonds and gold an attractive hedge against any recession or renewed inflation.
The KASE index. On Friday, the KASE index showed a rather volatile session. The quotes fell down to 5,120 points, but were partially bought off. Nevertheless, comparing the peaks and lows since April of this year in a logarithmic chart, we see that the index is still moving in a growing channel, and on Friday it was near its lower limit.
Index shares. The largest decrease was for Kaspi – quotes fell to 52,000, but closed with a relatively small decrease of 2.2%. On Friday, we expressed the opinion that buying securities on a fall makes sense, but may be fraught with risk. It is noteworthy that the last 7 and 10 similar reports by Culpir Research ended with an increase in securities that were recommended for short positions (for sale). We believe that the report does not affect the fundamental value of the company in any way, since the arguments given are not sufficient for the company to receive secondary sanctions. Interestingly, we can note that Kazatomprom remained neutral on the LSE, despite the fact that the quotations of uranium companies rose well on Friday. It is reported that the famous Tri-Maililand nuclear power plant in the United States, which survived a major accident in 1979, is reopening and will sell electricity exclusively to Microsoft. Air Astana is testing the 50-day average on the LSE and may break through it in the near future.
Currency. The dollar is trading at 479.9 tenge in the morning, which indicates its slight growth.